#BTC First, let me state the conclusion: the market in the next one to two months will be more difficult to trade than any period this year, and the regulation of macro data will occupy a larger proportion of the factors that dominate the market direction. All the explanations in this paragraph are mainly to provide a more objective logical framework (technical structure and macro judgment) to facilitate investors to get sufficient trading thinking space within the framework and face the next transaction more calmly and plannedly. #crypto2023
Figure 1 is a market deduction based on the current market trend and some objective conditions. The figure is constructed by upper and lower trend lines, and the prototype of a bullish wedge has been formed, and the technical analysis deduction is made. (Under the condition that the structure is not completed to a high degree, the market deduction here can only be used as an analysis idea, and cannot be used as any actual trading reference. Until the actual structure is completed, its reference value and the probability of rising will increase.)
Based on the technical structure deduction of Figure 1, to maximize the success probability of this structure, it is necessary to meet the full cooperation of macroeconomic conditions, for example: May will be the last interest rate hike, inflation is reasonably controlled, and a phased monetary easing policy is coming. At the same time, it is necessary to get the clear attitude affirmation of the Federal Reserve. Under such conditions, the technical structure is fully coordinated with macroeconomic conditions, and the market will have a greater probability of continuing the upward trend.
Now let's take a look at the technical structure overview in Figure 2. First of all, the overall trend of this period of market until today is in line with the technical analysis conclusions in the previous tweet. Here I throw a picture of the technical analysis conclusion at 20230313. Those who are interested in continuing to track the tweets can go and take a look for verification.
The purpose of mentioning this paragraph is that, in the subsequent market tracking analysis on 20230313, I have mentioned many times that the target position of this market is around 31500, and around 25000 will become the turning point of the trend of this market. As long as the 25000 daily line closes without breaking, the trend continuity of this market will most likely continue to maintain an upward trend.
The market has come to 20230501, which I have mentioned many times in previous tweets. I think the time window for the end of this market is around the end of April to the beginning of May. So what I want to say is that whether this market trend ends or not depends on whether the technical structure above and the macro conditions can be formed. Secondly, the market has come to this point. Through the current structural prototype, I don’t think that the 25,000 area still has the bull-bear dividing line mentioned above.
Based on the current price trend and technical structure, whether the 26666 daily line closes and breaks through will become one of the conditions for judging whether this trend has ended. Any analysis is a process of seeking fuzzy correctness. The pursuit of precision itself is disrespectful to the market. What we need is to get more thinking space through analysis, so as to get more positive feedback in the transaction process, and to be able to deal with the unknown more calmly and in a planned manner.
Let me talk about the macro judgment. The macro judgment here is completely copied from my friend’s personal analysis and judgment, as follows: “The market price in May is the last rate hike. If the Fed does not hint at this, risk assets will fall sharply. Of course, if there is no rate hike, it will rise sharply. But JPM took over the First Republic, there is no reason not to raise interest rates. ”
"My basic judgment is that it will not give clear hints or describe the conditions for not raising interest rates. It should just say that inflation has been improving recently, the economy is stable, and we should still pay attention to the real rate, which should be around 0 (fed fund rate - inflation). This will disappoint the market and risk off will occur."
That's all. Thank you for your patience in reading. By the way, the real value of a paragraph lies in how much thinking space it can bring to the readers, rather than in the summary of conclusions and the predicted analysis results of the unknown. So this account, as I said before, is relatively niche and not very suitable for pure technical novices to understand and capture value, but I am also trying to use plain language and rigorous attitude as much as possible to facilitate more people to understand.
