#Write2Earn

This idea was regularly suggested by users to themselves recently after projects adopted the retrodrop meta from Arbitrum and started to enter the market with some number of (conditionally) free tokens, and the idea of "merge Celestia at 2 and here's why..." turned into fomo from premature token sales.

So an interesting task was to look for potential patterns of price dynamics from the moment the giveaway was announced - which can be tracked by trades on popular OTCs, and over time after listing on exchanges.

I propose to start with dry figures of the most classic representatives of the exit with retrodrop, which go in the following format:

project - closing price of an hour candle (1h after the start of trading) - closing price of a daily candle in a week - closing price of a daily candle in a month - price now | average price on the OTC before listing (OTC - not traded on the OTC, OTC - OTC in telegram, kOTC - KuCoin premarket)

2020

Uniswap 1h 3.03 7D 4.4 1M 3.05 N 6.07 | OTC
1inch 1h 2.58 7D 1.36 1M 2.35 N 0.4 | OTC

2021

DYDX 1h 13.5 7D 11.6 1M 21.8 N 2.75 | OTC 3.74
ENS 1h 57.66 7D 48.17 1M 42.16 N 19.19 | OTC
Biconomy 1h 6.49 7D 4.10 1M 3.66 N 0.35 | OTC 1.08

2022

Optimism 1h 1.6 7D 1.1 1M 0.53 N 3.1 | OTC 1.24
Aptos 1h 8.49 7D 8.78 1M 4.62 N 9.28 | OTC 3.6
Hashflow 1h 1.32 7D 0.63 1M 0.48 N 0.32 | OTC 0.96

2023

Blur 1h 0.59 7D 1.24 1M 0.66 N 0.61 | OTC
Arbitrum 1h 1.33 7D 1.34 1M 1.34 N 1.85 | OTC 1.05
SpaceID 1h 0.44 7D 0.46 1M 0.75 N 0.28 | OTC
Maverick 1h 0.57 7D 0.5 1M 0.3 N 0.59 | OTC
Arkham 1h 0.75 7D 0.53 1M 0.4 N 0.53 | OTC 0.209
Connext 1h 0.085 7D 0.059 1M 0.036 N 0.3 | OTC 0.14
Celestia 1h 2.42 7D 2.36 1M 7.09 N 17.8 | OTC 1.35, kOTC 1.95
Meme 1h 0.02 7D 0.0194 1M 0.03 N 0.23 | OTC 0.019
Pyth 1h 0.32 7D 0.34 1M 0.34 N 0.4 | kOTC 0.23

2024

Manta 1h 2.30 7D 3.24 N 3.74 | OTC 2.18, kOTC 2.45
AltLayer 1h 0.31 7D 0.43 | OTC 0.19.

What conclusions can be drawn:

OTC stage: there is a clear division of pricing into two periods, 2020-2022 and 2023-2024, where in the first period the OTC buyer always consistently (5/5) "won" the deal by a huge margin (1.3-6x) due to underpricing of the project by the OTC receiver.

In the second (2023-2024) period, which was kick-started by Arbitrum and brought huge masses of people, the point of selling their received tokens on the OTS is practically lost - pricing in 6/8 cases is on the side of the OTS buyer/those who did NOT sell their tokens on the OTS, but at the same time the profit percentage for the OTS buyer has decreased multiple times.

Important! for those who want to buy back OTC - the price is the average of all sales and experience is needed to understand when the most profitable price is and which project to buy back.

Stage of market trading: there is no general regularity, pricing directly depends on the market condition at the moment of release, as well as what phase will be in the next six months. at the same time, the hold of the released project at the moment of growing market (see attached chart) (Connext-AltLayer) was justified 6/6 times. projects released in flat market (Arbitrum-Arkham) currently cost more than the first hour candle 2/4 times.

At the same time, holding a project for more than one whole cycle (UniSwap-Optimism) makes almost no sense if you have not studied the project fundamentally, because of the statistics in 2/5 and a long time period, which presses mentally.

Conclusion

First of all, in the question of fixing funds you should be guided by your own beliefs, analysis of the project and your financial and psychological state. The general recommendation is to fix with a ladder in case of a rising market and to fix completely if you think that the market is overheated.

It is also worth keeping in mind that after Arbitrum there are drops, which a large number of people did not do purposefully, like LayerZero or StarkNet, so at the start the price may be lower than expected due to pressure and in the future it will not give too much growth (note Arbitrum).

Celestia's intense growth phenomenon is an exception and it is mathematically impossible to expect it.

And remember that perfect exit points exist only in the past tense.

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