My view is also very simple. Before the Bitcoin bull market starts, there must be a 30% correction. Here we can see where the 30% correction will be based on some key points.
If the spot ETF is passed, it will rise in a short period of time to 48,000-52,000, which should be the current position of most long military bets. Then it will fall back by 30%, and the range will be 33,600-36,400. This range is more interesting. At present, the position of the air force's correction is probably in this range, especially the two key support levels of 33,000 and 36,000.
If it does not pass the spot ETF, it is very likely to be violently washed out in a short period of time, with a direct callback of 30%. This position is currently around 44000*0.7=30800. 30000 is also a very interesting position. In 2023, the bulls were basically tortured by it for a whole year, and there were several false breakthroughs. Including the cost price of MicroStrategy is also around this.
What is more interesting is that no matter whether it passes or not, everyone knows that there will be a big correction before the real bull market begins, but they are affected by the fomo sentiment and hope to get a rise around 44,000-50,000. In fact, if you wait patiently for a big correction, you can not only avoid the huge fluctuations of the ETF this time, but also have the opportunity to continue to get on board at a low cost even if you miss the opportunity.
Of course, as a Bitcoin market analyst, the biggest narrative at the moment, in addition to spot ETFs, is the Bitcoin halving.
Here is another analysis of the halving market.
The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012, and the peak of this bull market was in December 2013, with a price of $1,200. Then in January 2015, the lowest price was $164. The highest price between the lowest price and the second bottom was $316 in July 2015 (for the sake of simplicity, it will be described as "the second highest in the bear market"). The second bottom began in August 2015, with the price at $171.
The second halving occurred in July 2016, and the peak of this bull market was in December 2017, with a price of $19,891. Then it adjusted to a minimum price of $3,216 in December 2018. The second highest price in this bear market was $13,970 in June 2019. It began to bottom out for the second time in March 2020 (this was the famous black swan event triggered by the 312 continuous circuit breakers in the U.S. stock market), and the price was $3,782.
The third halving occurred in May 2020, and the peak of this bull market was in December 2021, with a price of US$69,000. Then it adjusted back to the lowest price of US$15,476 in November 2022. The second highest price in this bear market is still unknown, the second bottom is still unknown, and the high point of this bull market is still unknown.
Because the timeline starts from each round of halving, it may seem a bit confusing, so I will simplify it here.
The peak price of the bull market was $1,200 in December 2013 - the lowest price of this bear market was $164 in January 2015 - the second highest price in the bear market was $316 in July 2015 - the second bottom price was $171 in August 2015.
The peak price of the bull market was $19,891 in December 2017 - the lowest price of this bear market was $3,216 in December 2018 - the second highest price in the bear market was $13,970 in June 2019 - the second bottom price was $3,782 in March 2020.
To simply summarize the rules of the halving timeline, there is a possibility of a second bottom at any time before the halving, but after the halving, there will no longer be a price close to the bottom of the bear market to pick us up.
In May 2024, that is, this year, I don’t know whether the second bottoming situation will occur, but I always think there will be a relatively low position, and the leeks will be cleaned up with a low leverage of 3-5 times. For example, 33,000 will clean up 5 times leverage, and 27,000 will clean up 2.5-3 times leverage. There will definitely be people who are bullish here who will criticize me.
I can only say that a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The halving market is still nearly 5 months away. Now it has adjusted back for one and a half months to around 27,000-30,000 to clean up the longs, and then slowly pull back to above 40,000 in conjunction with the halving market. Then the time node is stuck in a secondary high point one and a half months before the halving. It is also normal to slowly pull into a big bull market after the halving.
Miracles happen in the cryptocurrency world precisely because of the huge fluctuations. Do you agree? #BTC #etf
