According to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the US CPI is expected to rise to 2.8% year-on-year by the end of the year, and the core CPI is expected to be 3.2% year-on-year. US food inflation may face periodic pressure, and the upward risk of US energy inflation is limited. The month-on-month growth rate of US core commodity inflation may fluctuate around zero growth, and core service items may have a certain stickiness.

It is expected that there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, and there is still room for a 50bps rate cut this year. In the short term, the upward risk of short-term US Treasury bond interest rates is limited, and long-term US Treasury bond interest rates may fluctuate widely.