● Macro indicators and analysis: Focus on the US non-farm payrolls report
According to Wu's report, this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the US second quarter GDP was slightly higher than expected, PCE was in line with expectations, and the attitude of Federal Reserve officials generally expected another 50 basis points cut in interest rates this year; this week's focus is on the US September unemployment rate and non-farm employment data.
Key events & indicators this week: September 30: 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook (20:00); October 1: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks to the National Association for Business Economics (01:00); the Bank of Japan releases a summary of the opinions of the review committee members of the September monetary policy meeting (07:50); US September ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00); October 2: US September ADP employment (10,000 people) (20:15); October 3: US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 (10,000 people) (20:30); October 4: US unemployment rate in September (20:30); US September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (10,000 people) (20:30).
According to PANews, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since March 2020 is expected to affect the income streams of the five major centralized stablecoins. According to the CCData report, these stablecoins hold nearly $125 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and may lose about $625 million in interest income for every 50 basis point rate cut. U.S. Treasury bonds account for 80.2% of the reserves of major stablecoins.
The market expects a total rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of 2024, and stablecoins may face an additional revenue loss of $937.5 million, with a total loss of $1.5625 billion. Tether's USDT holds the largest share of U.S. Treasury-backed reserves, totaling $93.2 billion. Circle's USDC holds $28.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. Other stablecoins such as FDUSD, PYUSD, and TUSD hold smaller Treasury positions.
Despite these potential financial setbacks, the stablecoin market has proven resilient. In September, the total stablecoin market capitalization increased by 1.50% to $172 billion, marking 12 consecutive months of growth.
● SUI, ZETA, DYDX and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts this week
According to Golden Finance, according to Token.Unlocks data, this week SUI, ZETA and DYDX will usher in a one-time large-scale unlocking of tokens, with a total release value of over US$100 million, including:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 64.19 million tokens at 8:00 on October 1, worth approximately US$108 million, accounting for 2.4% of the circulation;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 53.89 million tokens at 8:00 on October 1, worth approximately US$40.3 million, accounting for 13.43% of the circulation;
dYdX (DYDX) will unlock 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 on October 1, worth approximately US$8.78 million, accounting for 1.32% of the circulation;
Maverick Protocol (MAV) will unlock 36.4 million tokens at 8:00 on October 1, worth approximately US$8.7 million, accounting for 9.56% of the circulation.
● Sui public chain TVL reaches 1 billion US dollars, a record high
According to PANews, the public chain Sui said on the X platform that its total locked value (TVL) has reached US$1 billion, a record high.
The project noted that this milestone was achieved less than two years after the mainnet launch.
● Forecast market: BTC has a 60% chance of hitting a new all-time high by the end of 2024
According to ChainCatcher, Polymarket data shows that the current prediction that Bitcoin will hit a record high by the end of 2024 is 60%, and the betting amount is about US$140,000.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, commented that "FTX expects to distribute $16 billion to creditors in Q4." Even if these funds cannot be fully returned to the crypto market, it is still a large number, which may imply that it will boost the market.
As previously reported, FTX will return $11-16 billion to creditors in the fourth quarter of 2024, which could provide a significant boost to the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, SOL, and Solana network cryptocurrencies. While the exact date is unclear, FTX has proposed that the distribution will take place within 60 days of the restructuring plan taking effect.
The next hearing on the reorganization plan is scheduled for October 7. If approved, FTX will have 60 days to distribute assets to creditors, which means the returned cash will reach previous cryptocurrency buyers sometime before December 7. A large portion of this cash will likely remain in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with creditors reinvesting the funds in their favorite tokens or ETFs.
