The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week has slightly increased

According to Jinshi Data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next week, which is priced in by swap contracts, has slightly increased. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that policymakers were considering whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.

The September OIS contract fell about 3 basis points to an intraday low of around 5.04%, corresponding to a rate cut of about 28 basis points in the September meeting, moving towards the midpoint of Wednesday's range. As of Wednesday's close, the corresponding rate cut was 26 basis points.

Bets on the extent of rate cuts this year remain around 103 basis points, unchanged during the day.