According to a report by Jinshi Futures on July 18, from a macro perspective, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has warmed up, which is beneficial to commodities. However, the fundamentals are bearish, and aluminum prices fluctuated downward. In terms of alumina, both supply and demand increased, and the spot market maintained a tight balance, maintaining the Back structure. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production and new projects in Inner Mongolia were put into production, and domestic daily output increased slightly; but the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing continued to weaken, and the trend of accumulated inventory in the off-season may continue in the short term. According to SMM data, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises continued to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term. However, considering the low supply elasticity and downstream demand growth points, some market participants are optimistic about the medium and long-term aluminum prices, and it is recommended to buy Shanghai aluminum on dips.