According to Jinshi, U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth may slow in June but remain at a healthy level, and the unemployment rate will stabilize at 4%, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be able to curb inflation without tipping the economy into recession. The report is also expected to show that average wage growth was the lowest in three years. Coupled with the slowdown in prices in May, the report will confirm that the trend of slowing inflation is back on track after a surge in inflation in the first quarter.
It could also bolster Fed policymakers’ confidence in the inflation outlook and bring the central bank closer to starting to cut interest rates later this year. “The economy is entering a phase of reasonable, sustainable job growth,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “There’s no evidence of a sudden downturn, and there’s no sign of a sudden downturn. We’re still essentially achieving a ‘soft landing,’ ” he said.
