According to Jinshi, Lori Calvasina, capital markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, listed three possible scenarios for the U.S. stock market based on factors such as inflation prospects, U.S. corporate earnings, and the trend of U.S. Treasury yields. 1. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2024, inflation is more difficult than expected, and U.S. Treasury yields are below 5%, the S&P 500 index will retreat sharply by 8%, falling to 4,900 points. 2. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as scheduled in 2024, but U.S. corporate earnings are poor, the S&P 500 index may retreat by 5%, falling to 5,100 points. 3. If inflation is too difficult, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the S&P 500 index will plummet by nearly 16%.
