According to Jinshi, Morgan Stanley economists expect that the timetable for rate cuts by Asian central banks will be postponed due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts and the cuts will be smaller. They now expect regional central banks to start cutting interest rates from August instead of the end of June, and the cuts will be smaller. This reflects their belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in July instead of June due to continued strength in US economic data. Morgan Stanley said that Asian central banks will not cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve because high interest rates in the United States have exacerbated concerns about the impact of potential currency weakness on inflation. Their previous forecasts showed that rate cuts would help restore aggregate real interest rates to near pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter, but now believe that real interest rates will be higher than pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2025.