TD Securities: Bank of Canada likely won't cut rates until July

According to Jinshi, TD Securities analysis pointed out that although Canada has taken another step on the road to rate cuts, it is a bit like a guessing game to see how much evidence of weakening price pressures will be enough for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. TD Bank strategists expect Canada's GDP growth rate to be 1.5% in 2024, and the year-on-year increase in core CPI will still be above 3%, so the central bank may not feel too much pressure to cut interest rates immediately. They also pointed out that the Bank of Canada may be more likely to make hawkish mistakes and maintain interest rates for too long, rather than dovish mistakes and cut interest rates too early. Therefore, although the June meeting may be the focus of attention, TD Securities still expects the Bank of Canada not to cut interest rates until July.