According to Jinshi, CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in March exceeded expectations again. Although education and health services, leisure and hotel industries, and government departments are still the main contributing industries, the marginal increase in the commodity production sector is large, and the breadth of new employment has increased compared with the previous value. The combination of rising labor force participation rate and falling unemployment rate shows that the U.S. labor market is still resilient, but there is a differentiation between the commodity production and service production sectors, and the number of new jobs in the service industry has slowed down. We need to be vigilant about the hedging effect formed by the expansion of demand in the commodity production sector. We expect the Fed to cut interest rates less than the market's expectation of 3 times this year, and the balance sheet reduction may begin to slow down at the next interest rate meeting, and the balance sheet reduction will end in the middle of the year to the third quarter. The inflation trend still needs to be paid attention to when the first interest rate cut is made.