ChainCatcher message, the prediction on Polymarket that 'the United States will establish a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025' has a probability of 51%, down about 14% from the previous high of 65%. Currently, the total amount of bets on this prediction has reached $581,400, with a deadline of December 31, 2025.

The criterion is whether the U.S. government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves, excluding Bitcoin confiscated by the U.S. government. The main sources of determination will be official information from the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve, and credible reports with consensus recognition will also be referenced.