Bitcoin is showing the dynamics of a mature asset with periodic ups and consolidations. With a market cap of $2 trillion, it is the sixth most powerful asset among global fiat currencies.
Using the Fibonacci extension from the November 2022 low ($15,450) to the 2024 consolidation ($48,934), we see a target between $136K and $150K. This is consistent with the Realized Price Bands metric, which shows potential resistance.
To reach these numbers, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to grow to $3 trillion. Realized Cap grew by 470% in 2021, and by 111% in the current cycle, leaving room for growth.
Possible impulses:
- ETFs gained ~$40B, which is 4.7% of Realized Cap. 7x more is needed for significant growth.
- Bitcoin futures market has $95B, which is 11.45% Realized Cap. To reach $350B, it needs to increase 3.7 times.