Tonight's non-farm data will affect the number of interest rate cuts, so we have to pay close attention to it.
Look at two data, unemployment rate and employment rate.
The unemployment rate represents the economic development situation. If the unemployment rate is too high, it will be considered an economic recession. Therefore, under the premise of an increase in the unemployment rate, we must also look at the changes in the number of employed people.
There have been several cases in the past where the unemployment rate has risen, but the employment data has also risen. This is because the new labor force is increasing. Although the unemployment rate has risen, the labor force is also increasing. In this case, it will not be simply considered an economic recession. So if the non-farm data is like this, it is good news.
The unemployment rate rose slightly, the previous value was 4.2%, the market expectation was 4.2%, and the Bloomberg expectation was 4.4%.
The previous value of non-farm payrolls was 227,000, and the market expected 160,000.
According to expectations, non-farm payrolls show an increase in unemployment and a decrease in employment, which means that the Fed will open up more interest rate cuts, and there is a suspicion of economic recession, but the market data is still good, so I think if it really appears, it should be a small positive. Of course, if the market insists on interpreting it as an economic recession, then there is nothing we can do.
In the third case, if the unemployment rate decreases and the employment data increases, the market will expect the economy to be good, and the Fed will reduce or maintain the number of interest rate cuts.