Bitcoin stabilized strongly near $92,000! Judging from yesterday's trend, the market first experienced a wave of decline, creating a panic of falling from a high position, but it rebounded quickly within two hours in the late trading and finally closed with a spinning line.
This signal clearly shows that Bitcoin’s subsequent downward space may be extremely limited, and the market’s bull-short game is becoming stalemate.
There was big news yesterday that the US government was going to sell Silk Road’s BTC. The market immediately panicked, and short-term panic spread.
In addition, the market has risen too sharply before and is now in a recovery period. Also, before Trump came to power, some funds withdrew for risk aversion.
So what should we do next? Will Bitcoin continue to drop? What to do if trapped?
Bitcoin's internal adjustments: the black line is the first part of the adjustment, the blue line is the second part, the red line is the third part; the red line is not a driving wave.
Excluding altcoins and looking solely at Bitcoin, what has emerged so far is a very strong horizontal adjustment, a method of exchanging time for space. In a bull market trend, this head-and-shoulders pattern has a higher probability of being a continuation rather than a peak.
The daily MACD bottom divergence signal is strong! Will the rebound or reversal be revealed soon?
From the complete line chart, the MACD indicator at the daily level has confirmed a bottom divergence, and market sentiment is brewing for a new round of action.
I judge that a rebound is likely to come next! However, whether this wave of the market is a short-term rebound or a trend reversal still depends on the performance of the upper resistance levels.
Short-term resistance levels: $97,000 and $98,500;
Major resistance levels: $102,000 and $105,000.
Breaking through these key points may open up greater upward space for the market! This will be a crucial moment that determines the direction of the market, and it's worth looking forward to!
Ethereum follows Bitcoin; overall, it is still fluctuating within the upper box. If this rebound or rise cannot break through the upper edge of the box, I will temporarily abandon it.
Although Bitcoin may break through and even welcome a 'starry sea' future, time cost and mental cost are equally important.
Holding Bitcoin keeps my mindset stable; I won't be swayed by switching to Ethereum, nor will I seek to chat with my great-grandmother about it. Holding the line is the biggest victory!
The signs before the sharp drop in U.S. stocks had already emerged! The market atmosphere at its peak brewed Tuesday's big drop.
Before the market fell this Tuesday, the charts had already shown weak signals, and last Thursday even felt the 'collective climax' of the third-generation AI sector. Prosperity leading to decline was indeed predictable.
On Tuesday night, after the U.S. employment data was released, the market fell sharply, and everyone attributed the reason to the data suppression. However, reviewing the specific data, the facts are more intriguing:
In November, U.S. JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased by 259,000, reaching 8.098 million;
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped from 52.1 to 54.1;
The price index soared to 64.4, reaching an 11-month high.
Behind the strong data, market pressure is gradually emerging. Clearly, the drop in the market is not just accidental, but rather an emotional explosion that has been accumulating for a long time!
Strong data ignites market worries, and risk assets are staging a '2024-style correction'! Is the policy-driven market returning?
Recently, U.S. economic data has performed well, raising market concerns about rising inflation and weakening expectations for future rate cuts.
As liquidity expectations weaken, the risk market reacts accordingly, showing a downward trend. This scene seems to remind people of the time in early to mid-2024 when Fed Chair Powell managed emotions through controlling market expectations.
After Trump confirmed his campaign advantage, the Bitcoin market briefly displayed independent performance, showing the profound impact of U.S. policy on the crypto market.
However, with Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 mark and the festive atmosphere fading, the market is returning to macro data dominance, following the fluctuations of U.S. stocks. Nevertheless, this is still broadly a 'policy-driven market', as macro data is always closely related to U.S. financial policy.
After Trump came to power, U.S. foreign policy may become more self-centered and isolated, even ignoring the interests of allies. His recent shocking remarks about Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Greenland have stunned the world and triggered tensions.
This is not only to please MAGA voters and promote American nationalism, but more likely to divert domestic focus by creating external conflicts, letting supporters immerse themselves in the illusion of the 'great American era'.
Meanwhile, the market's expectation of no rate cuts by the Fed in January was largely digested back in December. The strong data on Tuesday further suppressed short-term rate cut fantasies, triggering market turbulence.
However, this fluctuation seems more like a game around the extent of the Fed's rate cuts in 2025. This year, this topic may become the core focus of the market.
It’s worth mentioning that the small non-farm payroll data on Wednesday (12.2, below the expected 14.6) has eased inflation somewhat.
After the data was released, the CME's probability of no change in January interest rates dropped from 95% to 93%. However, this slight adjustment may just be the beginning of this year's complex market game!
Trump's emergence may open a two-year stable period, and the broad bull market is poised to take off? The true password for the altcoin season is being deciphered!
Trump's inauguration and the first hundred days of new policies will inevitably affect market expectations. Although we cannot accurately predict his specific policies, it is certain that he has a very strong grasp over the MAGA faction.
As long as Trump doesn't personally 'flip the car', the U.S. is expected to enter a two-year political stability period, providing a good foundation for a broad bull market.
Is the altcoin season coming? Don't worry, the thresholds have already changed!
The eagerly awaited altcoin season cannot be triggered casually; it has a key prerequisite: total buying volume > number of targets × market capitalization.
However, with the popularization of technology and the continuous lowering of listing thresholds, the number of cryptocurrency projects is approaching infinity.
In such an environment, only the leading projects that can stand out at a specific time can attract massive funds and bring jaw-dropping high multiples.
Getting rich has become difficult, and the dreams of small funds shatter on the mainstream track.
With increasing competition within major exchanges, it is becoming increasingly unrealistic for ordinary investors to get rich with small funds. High-yield opportunities seem to be shifting to the on-chain level 1.5 market, becoming a profit paradise pursued by a select few.
The double-edged sword of on-chain wealth: from the myth of a thousand-fold return to the zeroing trap.
The on-chain market is full of wealth myths, but high returns come with high risks. Behind the myth of a thousand-fold return often lies countless zeroed-out coins. The narrative logic is merely the starting point for price increases, but what truly determines the magnitude of the rise is capital strength and its layout strategy. The goals of capital determine how long the '0' of the rise is, and investors need to find the winning path through in-depth research and gradual analysis amid layers of fog.
Conclusion: The only rule to improve winning rates.
The wealth code on-chain lies in understanding the logic behind capital strength and analyzing the intersection of narrative and layout.
Once successful, the market will naturally compose an ode for the winners, and what you need is to seize the opportunity at the beginning of the story, to find your own 'thousand-fold coin'.
Finally, let's analyze the short-term market:
Has the short-term low for Bitcoin already appeared? The fluctuation range is exposed, and the market direction ignites expectations!
At 4 a.m. today, Bitcoin touched 91,023, which may be the recent short-term low (or second low).
The upcoming market may experience fluctuations around the 92-102 range, and if the upper and lower limits are widened a bit, a fluctuation range of 88-108 is also reasonable. Is the calm before the storm signaling that a new breakout is about to come?
Is Bitcoin about to hit $100,000? The big non-farm data may become the market's wind vane!
With Trump set to be sworn in on January 20, Bitcoin is still expected to rebound to over $100,000 in the short term, and even attempt to challenge previous highs based on the time cycle and market sentiment.
But if this breakthrough does not come as expected, the market may have to wait for the 'small spring' from the Spring Festival to mid-March for new opportunities.
The big non-farm data to be released tonight will be a key battle in determining the future direction of the market, and investors need to pay close attention.
For retail investors, the current strategy should be to restrain greed, avoid blindly leveraging, and ensure enough 'dry food' (having USDT) in hand to accurately bottom out at the best time, in order to seek stability and achieve profits!