The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show that the market is generally bearish.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On January 7, Zhao Changpeng tweeted that "Bitcoin at $100,000 is too boring." If $100,000 is a bit boring, then what about Bitcoin at $91,200? Perhaps all that is left is hesitation and uneasiness. The market once thought that the market would continue to rise, but the result was the exact opposite: Bitcoin has been falling since January 7, and finally fell to around $91,200.
Today, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 50, from 69 yesterday (the average last week was 74), and market sentiment plummeted to the level of October last year. The crypto market did not start the year as investors expected, but instead went up and down. Since December last year, the price trend of the currency has been like a roller coaster, and many market participants, especially altcoin holders, have been exhausted by the slight rise and fall.
Data does not lie. According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin continues to decline recently, the current funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is generally bearish. With both market sentiment and coin prices declining, how do the big players view the subsequent market trends?
Real Vision co-founder: The market is entering the 'Banana Singularity' zone, and after consolidation, there will be an altcoin season.
Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the 'Banana Singularity' zone, or a period where 'everything is going up.' ('Banana Zone' is a term created by Raoul Pal to describe periods of significant price increases.)
Raoul Pal indicated that the market is still in the Banana Zone, with the first phase of this bull market being the breakout in November last year. The next phase will be a consolidation period similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which won't last too long. The next stage of the 'Banana Zone' is the 'Banana Singularity,' which refers to a 'season where everything goes up, followed by a larger consolidation' in altcoins.
CryptoQuant CEO: The altcoin market is in a zero-sum PvP game, and only a few projects can survive.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on his social platform that 'the altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Despite Bitcoin's market cap doubling, the total market cap of altcoins remains below previous historical highs, only rotating internally in the market without new capital inflows. Only a few altcoins with strong application scenarios and narratives can survive.'
Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL face critical support levels being breached, and panic sentiment is beginning to appear in the market.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media stating, 'This is when most people start to panic, for the following reasons:'
· BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting the range low from December 5, and the market is beginning to accept the reality that these support levels may not hold.
· The next support level for BTC is at $85,000, which is very far away.
· People's psychological reliance on the 'January bull market' is beginning to weaken. Most people realize that the assets they haven't sold have already gone through a complete cycle of ups and downs, starting to incur losses, and then discovering that they no longer like the coins they hold as much during a significant market decline.
Glassnode: If Bitcoin breaks below $88,000, it may lead to further declines.
Glassnode stated: 'The short-term holder cost basis ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin price momentum. Using the URPD indicator, it can be observed that trading volume below the short-term holder cost basis is low, indicating that a break below this level could lead to further downside.'
Trader TraderS: Bitcoin will consolidate and fluctuate in the short term, with Friday's non-farm payroll data being a key focus.
Twitter KOL trader TraderS tweeted that, in terms of short-term market conditions, $92,750 might be the short-term low (or second low). Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $92,000 and $102,000; if the upper and lower limits are expanded a bit, it would be between $88,000 and $108,000. Before Trump's inauguration on January 20, there may still be time for a return to above $100,000, even to touch the previous highs. If that happens, it will clear most positions to observe Trump's actual performance after taking office. If no opportunities arise before January 20, we might have to wait for the traditional spring market around the Lunar New Year until mid-March. The non-farm payroll data on Friday night could be the most important reference data for establishing the market tone, so it needs to be closely monitored.
Crypto KOL Ansem: The market will enter a consolidation phase, but there are still opportunities on-chain.
Crypto KOL Ansem pointed out that the current fundamental view is that the period from August to December is altcoin season, during which the first mini-bubble of AI tokens occurred from October to December. He expects the market to enter a prolonged consolidation until investors generally believe the bull market is over. During this time, some on-chain projects will perform excellently, while many new projects will be worth participating in.
Trader Kruge: The market is overly pessimistic, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has not ended, and I still expect new historical highs.
Renowned trader Kruge expressed in a lengthy Twitter post regarding market conditions that people are too bearish right now. I believe this is a matter of time frame. Most crypto natives are exhausted, and many have even been traumatized. Normally, this kind of sentiment could actually form a top. But this time, traditional finance (Tradfi) is buying Bitcoin (not just Saylor acting alone). They are indifferent to the trauma of crypto natives.
So ask yourself: Has the stock market reached its peak? That is the key question. ETFs should ensure the correlation continues to exist. And to answer this question, you have to ask yourself another question: Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle ended? I don't think so. We just heard the Federal Reserve announce a temporary pause in rate hikes, which the market has basically digested. It's temporary, not permanent. Look at what the Federal Reserve officials are saying; they still advocate for further rate cuts. And the market's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are priced for almost only one cut. Three months ago, that number was seven.
Kruge also stated: The market narrative will soon shift again, no longer focusing on the hawkish Federal Reserve and the long-term rate sell-off. Trump is also about to make an appearance. Meanwhile, given the recent pessimistic economic data and chart performance, I wouldn't be surprised if BTC prices enter the $80,000 range. But to me, this is just temporary noise that requires short-term risk management. I do believe traders will be more aggressive in selling when BTC prices exceed $100,000, which will slow the pace of the rise, especially before the price reaches $105,000. I also believe macro factors are becoming important again. I don't expect a 'simple pattern' in the future. The easy money days are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to set new highs. We have a long year ahead.
