What exactly is considered a 'Shanzhai Season'?
How do you understand 'Shanzhai Season'? Taking the period from September 2023 to March 2024 as an example, Bitcoin rose from 25,000 to 71,000, almost tripling in value. Can this wave of market activity be considered a Shanzhai Season?
Looking at the period from August to December 2024, Bitcoin rose from 50,000 to 108,000, a 100% increase. Can this also be considered a Shanzhai Season?
Reflecting on the Shanzhai market in March 2024, why was it so vigorous? Because at that time, Bitcoin's main upward trend had just begun, while altcoins had experienced a year-long bear market. Hence, the secondary market saw the emergence of dark horses like SEI, TIA, WLD, OM, and the Mingwen series, each with over tenfold gains, still led by new coins and new narratives.
However, the wave of market activity that started in August is somewhat different. First, the funding has become more dispersed, and the increase in Bitcoin's value is relatively small. Therefore, there have not been many dark horses in altcoins; the market has mainly focused on coins like SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT, and some older DeFi projects have also performed several times better. But can this still be considered a 'Shanzhai Season'?
In my personal opinion, the situation where various funds enter Bitcoin through compliant channels will continue to increase macroeconomically. Whether now or in the future, funds will continuously flow into Bitcoin. As for altcoins in the secondary market, everyone understands that new institutional investors are unlikely to easily buy coins from other projects unless they are involved in those projects.
Thus, the capital entering the Shanzhai market is not as obvious as before, and it is still mainly retail investors and speculative funds engaging in the game, while capital in the primary market is also differentiating itself between the secondary markets.
