Morphological analysis
Head and Shoulders Top
It can be clearly observed from the figure that from January 3 to January 7, the Bitcoin price formed a relatively complete head and shoulders top structure.
Left shoulder: approximately January 3 to January 6.
Head: Around January 7, the price hit a high of $102,724 and then quickly fell back.
Right Shoulder: On January 8, the price rebounded but failed to get close to the head high, and then fell back again.
Neckline location: Roughly located at $95,000, it is a key support point.
After January 8, the price broke below the neckline, marking the completion of the pattern, which usually means greater downward momentum.
Descending Channel
Since January 8, the price has entered a steep descending channel, with peaks and troughs gradually lowering, indicating that bearish strength is dominant.
The current trough (91,203 USD) and rebound high point (93,000 USD area) show that the short-term is still weak.
Pin Signal and Volume Increase
On January 10, the chart shows a 'pin down' pattern, where the price quickly bottomed at 91,203 USD and then surged. This reflects that there may be a phenomenon of short-term stop loss being triggered, followed by a reverse surge.
Pressure Support Analysis
Short-term Resistance Level: 94303: Attention is needed to see if it breaks through with volume; if it breaks through, it may open up further upward space.
Short-term support level: 91203: This is a key defensive area for bulls; if broken, it may further decline.
High Probability of Range Consolidation: There is a high probability of consolidation between 91203-94414, and attention should be paid to volume and breakthrough of key points.
Technical Indicators and Sentiment Analysis
Trading volume: The price is close to $92,000, with a significant volume concentration. Overall, the trading volume appears unstable, reflecting large fluctuations in market sentiment.
MACD: The current MACD is in the negative zone but is trending towards the zero axis, indicating a weakening of selling power.
RSI: The RSI value is close to 50, not entering overbought or oversold zones, and may continue to oscillate in the short term.
EMA: The 7-hour EMA (92914) is below the 30-hour EMA (93563), and the 120-hour EMA (96005) is far above the current price, indicating a continued downward trend in the medium to long term.
Market Sentiment: Combined with 'quick pin', the market shows panic sentiment, with long positions significantly liquidated during the sharp drop, and sentiment remains bearish.
Bollinger Band Analysis
1. Bollinger Upper Band (94416.43)
Resistance Level Confirmation: The area near the upper band is usually a short-term pressure zone; unless the price effectively breaks through the upper band, the market may maintain a range or pullback.
If the price can break through and stabilize above the upper band, it may start a new round of upward movement. If the price is blocked near the upper band, it may face pullback pressure in the short term.
2. Bollinger Lower Band (91571.20)
Support Level Confirmation: The area near the lower band is a strong support zone; prices touching this area typically have rebound demand.
Observation Point: The current low of 91203.67 is close to the Bollinger Lower Band, indicating strong bearish strength, but if the support is effective, a rebound may occur in the short term. If it breaks the lower band and continues to run, it may trigger a larger downward trend.
3. Bollinger Middle Band (92993.82)
Neutral Zone: The mid-band is the equilibrium line of the price, and the current price is hovering below the mid-band, indicating that the market is still in a weak phase.
Key Signal: If the price can stabilize above the mid-band, it indicates an improvement in market sentiment. If the mid-band continues to exert pressure, the market may continue to trend downwards.
Market Volatility and Short-term Trend
Bollinger Band Expansion: The current Bollinger Bands are widely open, indicating increased market volatility, and significant divergence between bulls and bears. It is suitable to pay attention to whether price reversals occur near the upper and lower bands to determine the next direction of the market.
Short-term Trend Judgment: Bearish Downtrend: The price is running between the mid-band and the lower band, indicating dominant bearish strength. If the next few candlesticks cannot break the mid-band, the short-term probability of maintaining a weak oscillation is high.
Large Transactions & Chip Distribution Analysis
Large Transaction Analysis
Red: A large number of red circles have appeared during the price decline since January 8, indicating sustained selling pressure. Especially near the low around 91203.67, the number of red circles has significantly increased, possibly indicating accelerated selling by bears.
Green: There are also some green circles during the decline, but they are fewer and concentrated at local rebound positions, indicating that bulls are trying to absorb the sell-off but with limited strength. The increase in green circles near the current price may indicate some funds are attempting to bottom-fish at lower levels.
Trade Interpretation: The current market is in a bearish dominant state, but bottom-fishing behavior has appeared near 91203, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of support in this area. If the number of green circles increases and breaks the current downtrend, a rebound may occur.
Chip Distribution Analysis
Chip Peak Position: In the chart, the area where chips are most concentrated is near 94083.85. This indicates that 94000-95000 is a previous area of concentrated trading, currently acting as an upper pressure zone.
Current Chip Distribution: The chips near the current price of 92927.30 are relatively few, indicating that trading is not active at this position. If the price continues to decline, there is little chip support near 91000, which may lead to further declines.
Chip Interpretation: There is a lack of sufficient chip support below the price. If bulls cannot effectively absorb the sell-off, it may continue to test 91000 or lower support. The upper area of 94000-95000 has dense chips, and a volume breakout is needed to open upside space.
Today's Trend Prediction
Base Prediction: Bearish Range
Volatility Range: The price may oscillate between 91,500 and 94,500 USD.
Rebound Target: Short-term rebound or test of the 93,000 - 94,500 USD area, but under significant pressure.
Downward Risk: If it breaks below 91,000 USD, it is highly likely to further test the 88,000 USD area.
Secondary Prediction: Strong Rebound
If the price stabilizes at 92,500 USD and continues to increase in volume, it may impact the 95,000 USD area, but macro favorable factors or funding support are needed.
Strategy Suggestions
Short-term Traders
Long Position Strategy: Attempt to layout long positions near 91,500 USD, with a stop loss set below 91,000 USD, and target to 93,500 - 94,500 USD.
Short Position Strategy: If the price rebounds to 94,500 USD but lacks strength to break through, light positions can be laid out in the range of 94,000 - 94,500 USD, targeting 91,000 USD.
Medium to Long-term Investors
In the current price area, consider gradually building positions on dips, but the position should be controlled within 30% of the total investment, waiting for future prices to return to the medium to long-term trend above 105,000 USD.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Settings
Stop Loss Suggestion: If entering near the lower band, the stop loss can be set below 91000. For positions built near the mid-band, the stop loss can be set below 92500.
Take Profit Suggestion: The target price can refer to the upper band area of 94416, and after breaking through, the take profit position can be gradually raised.
Risk Warning
The current market volatility is high, and close attention should be paid to the global macro environment (such as Federal Reserve dynamics, CPI data) and significant news in the cryptocurrency space (such as large on-chain transfers, exchange fund movements, etc.).
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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