BTC
Today's price continues the trend of yesterday, falling to around 93500. Currently, there still seems to be no possibility of a rebound on the 4-hour BOLL, meaning this decline may last until Friday.
On the news front, the approval of coin sales in the US is a relatively significant negative factor, causing potential rebounds in the afternoon to be suppressed. This news has been around since the end of December, and its resurfacing is a calculated move by the short sellers, meaning that the downward trend will not stop in the short term.
In addition, the main force has chosen to decline in the past few days, apart from the impact of news on the US economy, there is also the fact that the US stock market will not open tonight in memory of the former president, making shorting appear more advantageous. Therefore, we hold a conservative attitude towards tonight's trend, trying to watch more and act less.
From the price perspective, the current lower Bollinger Band is at 90936, which means that the low point of this decline is likely to be around 90,000. It is advisable to set up near that level for spot trading. Currently, the impact of news on price is too evident, so it is not suitable to engage in contract leverage; the main focus should be on medium to long-term spot layout. If it rebounds to 97000, it would be wise to sell a portion to reduce position costs.
ETH
Although ETH's 4-hour BOLL is quite similar to BTC's, its price has remained around 3300 during the day. If it continues to hold this level, it may form a fluctuating trend between 3200 and 3400, which is a good sign for the subsequent rebound market.
On the news front, the Ethereum Foundation's decision to sell coins this morning became a negative factor, which is also the main reason for the lack of significant rebound today. Additionally, from the transaction volume over the past few days, the main volume occurred during the night session, and the daytime trading volume has not been high, indicating that US investment institutions are still the primary trading parties. If it can stand above 3400 in the short term, the downward trend will change, which will be an important indicator for our spot layout. If it falls below 3250, we need to pay further attention to the 3000-point level, or consider spot layout at 3000.
The value of BNB
As the platform token for the Binance platform and the Gas token for the BNB Chain, BNB is also the token for Binance Greenfield and has been endowed with many functions. However, recently, in comparison to BGB's performance, BNB has begun to face complaints from many people.
Most complaints about BNB come from the following viewpoints:
1. Small increase
2. Low launchpool yields
3. Poor performance of launchpool projects
In fact, this is not correct for BNB; while the increase is small, BNB's decline in the first half of 2024 is also relatively small. For investors, this means not having to bear too much downward pressure. This is an important reflection of BNB over the year. Because the earlier decline was relatively small, it leads to the perception that the subsequent upward space is not particularly large, thus giving many people a false impression.
Regarding Launchpool yields, although the staking yield of BNB is relatively low, it was still quite considerable at the beginning of the year. Therefore, in terms of overall performance, it is not worse than Bitget.
Of course, in terms of the quality of launchpool projects, they can be considered standard. Although some tokens do not perform well, leaving users as 'bag holders' after purchasing at launch, there are also projects, such as Usual, that perform well. Additionally, the trading trends of launchpool projects on other platforms are similar, reflecting the project parties' attitudes toward pricing rather than the exchanges' attitudes.
Moreover, the trading market's momentum in the first half of 2024 is inherently weak, and many project parties have a strong desire to cash out. Against this backdrop, exchanges naturally find it easy to bear some dissatisfaction from investors, which was originally supposed to be borne by the project parties.
Additionally, BNB has recently been included in Bhutan's GMC plan for cryptocurrency strategic reserves, which may be an important turning point.
First of all, most of us still associate BNB with Binance and regard it as a centralized token. In fact, BNB Chain is a decentralized chain and is quite popular. Bhutan's plan to include BNB in reserves may largely be due to Binance's ability to attract investment, but I believe it is more about Binance's influence in the global market, which is also an indirect investment in Binance.
As a reserve, it is generally held for the long term, and this is a clear positive for BNB. It also demonstrates that Binance can be recognized by national-level investment institutions. From this perspective, BNB still holds significant value, contrary to what some KOLs or influencers are currently complaining about.
Therefore, we believe that BNB still holds significant investment value at present, and its pullback relative to ETH is smaller, so if necessary, it can be included in a higher-level layout category.