On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market experienced intense fluctuations, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices plummeting from $102K to below $95K, breaking key support levels. Meanwhile, major currencies such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) were also severely impacted, experiencing significant price drops.
The recent plunge is mainly due to the pressure from soaring U.S. Treasury yields and the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The report shows that the December Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the private sector surged to 54.1, far exceeding November's 52.1, indicating that the pace of economic expansion is beyond expectations, further exacerbating market anxiety.
Major altcoins have not been spared either, with most altcoins plummeting 5% to 10% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, meme coins are under heavy pressure, with Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) both dropping 8% to 10% during the same period. As a result, the total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market shrank by about 6%, currently falling to $3.38 trillion. However, despite the market downturn, investor sentiment is exceptionally active, with trading volume surging by 27%, breaking through $162 billion, setting a new record!
Is there going to be another surge in the market?
It mainly depends on two points: (1) Trump's policies (2) Interest rate cut expectations
Trump's policies have been difficult to implement in the past few months, so just focus on interest rate cut expectations. A significant recession in March would cause altcoins to drop; conversely, if the probability is unclear and hovers around 40-60%, the market will be volatile. In a volatile market, one must be prepared for fluctuations, and if good profits are made, they should be taken, without getting too ambitious.
After some data was released last night, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has dropped to four levels, while the probability for May is around five levels. Coupled with Bitcoin having rebounded for eight consecutive days, a pullback is very normal, but Bitcoin is still just in a consolidation phase. Unless the probability of a March rate cut falls below 20%, it could approach 91,500 or even drop below that. The focus will then be on two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, and the speech after the FOMC meeting on the 29th to determine how the market will move.
Investors need to be fully alert, buying low and selling high. Never sell at a loss and then chase the highs when the price goes up. If you are holding mainstream valuable assets, you can temporarily stay calm, or manage your maximum drawdown risk. If you are in small meme coins, do not consider averaging down, as there will be many data releases this week, with various bullish and bearish news fluctuating, which can easily mislead you during the pullback. The best approach is to stay calm and wait for the washout phase to end. Currently, accumulate spot positions in batches and enter futures on the right side.
Accurately bottom-fish and seize the next wave of eruption!
OM
MANTRA (OM), as the next explosive cryptocurrency, is gaining momentum as it incorporates Real World Assets (RWA) into the blockchain space. With a market capitalization of $3.61 billion and a trading price of $3.88, it has built a robust and scalable ecosystem based on the Cosmos SDK. Mantra aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and DeFi, with a total supply of 1.8 billion OM tokens and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $6.71 billion.
The platform supports up to 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), ensuring seamless operation for both individual users and large institutions. This scalability, combined with its Proof of Stake (PoS) validator set, guarantees top-level security and resistance to malicious attacks, which is crucial for managing Real World Assets (RWA). As the acceptance of RWA on the blockchain continues to rise, MANTRA is poised to lead this battle, confirming its significance as the next cryptocurrency to explode in the digital asset market.
BNB
As one of the main cryptocurrencies in the market, Binance Coin (BNB) is currently trading at $699.58, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In the short term, the price target for BNB is between $757 and $795. If it breaks further, Fibonacci projections indicate it could even rise to $840. However, on the risk side, the support level at $705, part of the 100-day EMA, provides a solid defense for investors.
In terms of market sentiment, BNB is currently very hot, with the Fear and Greed Index showing extreme greed. Over the past year, BNB has performed exceptionally well, with an increase of 142%, and its trading price is 19.22% higher than the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $607.24, indicating that the market trend remains positive. Additionally, its 30-day price volatility is only 2.63%, showing relative price stability, with 47% of trading days being bullish during this period.
According to technical forecasts, by early February 2025, the price of BNB could rise by 15.23% to reach $842.11. Overall, BNB not only has solid fundamentals but also performs well in the market, making it suitable for short-term investors while also being worthy of long-term attention.
ICP
Internet Computer Protocol (ICP) has been a focus in the L1 space in recent years. It is closely linked to cutting-edge concepts such as AI and decentralized point-to-point networks (DePIN), and due to its immense technological potential, it was once hailed as a 'king-level potential coin.' The native cryptocurrency ICP is currently trading at $10.805, maintaining a recent bottom support level of $9.76.
Daily chart analysis shows that the ICP price has formed a classic reversal pattern known as a 'cup and handle.' The candlestick chart setup shows a long-term accumulation phase shaped like a cup and a temporary pullback shaped like a handle. If valid, this pattern should lead to an 80% rise in altcoins before challenging the neckline resistance at $19.65. A breakout rebound may push the asset up to $37.8, followed by $56 and $74.5.
