So far, Bitcoin has not broken below the support level around 92,000, but altcoins continue to decline, especially Ethereum-related currencies, including the previously surging meme sector. For memes, the high rises before lead to heavier selling pressure during corrections, which is very normal. If you accept high rises, you have to endure more volatility than other altcoins when they adjust.
Currently, it can be said that it is a moment of despair for altcoin bulls. In December, Bitcoin hit new highs, while altcoins did not follow. When Bitcoin corrected, altcoins plummeted. In January, there was barely a rebound lasting less than a week, and after 24 hours, it fell back to the bottom.
Many people will wonder if there will be an altcoin season. This kind of anxiety is very normal.
The next opportunity is likely that both the US and UK central banks will implement treasury bond repurchase programs, releasing liquidity into the market. Positive data is expected in January, and a rate cut is confirmed in March. Trump's policies are essentially beneficial, which could boost liquidity. Although the market seems very pessimistic now, times of extreme panic often herald a turning point.
At this stage, we are looking at a fluctuating market. Without a trend-driven sentiment and strong liquidity, the market fluctuates between 92,000 and 98,000. Once the sentiment improves, it can rise above 98,000, but if the sentiment worsens, it could drop below 98,000. Macroeconomically, we continue to wait for tomorrow's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls. As long as there is no hype about recession expectations, there is still something to watch. Even if there is hype about recession expectations, it may look grim in the short term, but with Trump approaching office, there are still expectations.
The biggest news today is that the US Department of Justice has been authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin from Silk Road.
Let's interpret this news: Currently, there are two scenarios in the market. One is that this news was already sold on December 30, and this event has been fully reflected in the price, as it could have been approved on December 30.
The second possibility is that they might be trading OTC, which means off the market, and it does not affect the market directly.
Regarding Crab Boss's view: Currently, it has only been approved, and it is not yet confirmed when these Bitcoins will be sold. There are only 11 days left until Trump takes office. Previously, Trump also publicly stated that he would not sell a single BTC. Considering the efficiency of American bureaucracy, whether it can be sold smoothly still needs to be observed.
Secondly, if it is sold, for BTC valued at $6.5 billion, that is not a lot. Because now there are companies like BlackRock and MicroStrategy with infinite funding, it is expected that they will buy it back within a few days. Therefore, I think this news is more influenced by sentiment.
Regardless, since November, BTC has led the market, and ETH is also starting up. However, the increase has not been significant enough to bring about sufficient FOMO. Secondary altcoins are looking to ETH. From the main bullish phase of 2020-2021 to now, we can observe that ETH's daily line has risen from $3,050 to over $4,000 from November 21 to December. Meanwhile, most secondary altcoins have also risen during that period. Looking at this month, on January 1, it rose from $3,300 to around $3,700. Those who are attentive can observe and pick a few projects in each sector.
For secondary altcoins to explode, we still need to expect BTC to drive FOMO. ETH can build momentum and pull the market up. Fortunately, since the November elections, ETH has indeed been rising, and the inflow into ETH's ETF has also been quite good compared to before October 2024.
The ETH exchange rate deserves special mention. Since November 10, it has formed a large oscillating triangle. Yesterday, it just touched the lower edge of the oscillating triangle, which may trigger a rebound.
The stakeholders in ETH and altcoins should seize this window period. The weak position of Bitcoin seems to be a done deal, and it is also the best time for the ETH exchange rate to rise while Bitcoin's price drops significantly. After experiencing three waves of decline, altcoins should also rise to attract liquidity at this time.
Before a volume increase, the more likely trend is to oscillate first, and then gradually increase in volume. The shrinking volume of altcoins has reached its extreme, and there isn't much left to wash out.
Next, we wait for the new president's inauguration, the new SEC chairman's inauguration, the launch of ETH's spot ETF pledge, and the sentiment around BTC leading the way, with ETH upgrades expected in Q1 2025.
Essentially, there needs to be an influx of funds into ETH, and in fact, during those days around January 1, the inflow of funds into ETH's ETF was quite good.
We need to pay close attention to the US non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. This will affect short-term market sentiment and price trends. This drop may likely be a risk-averse reaction to the non-farm data. If the non-farm data shows an increase in unemployment and a decrease in employment, the Federal Reserve may open up more rate cuts.
