Ethereum's price has fallen into the red zone along with most of the top 10 tokens. As of the time of writing, ETH is down over 2%, trading slightly below $3,300.
Long-term Analysis: Approaching the Cycle's End
From Ethereum's long-term chart perspective, the market follows the Elliott Wave pattern, which helps analyze market sentiment. While the analysis remains somewhat subjective, Fibonacci levels and support areas add objectivity.
Ethereum is currently in an upward trend and may be nearing the completion of a larger cycle. Since the low in 2018, Ethereum has formed Wave 1, 2, 3, and 4, and is now likely approaching Wave 5, indicating that the trend may peak. However, compared to the peak in 2021, higher highs still need to be formed.
Momentum Weakening: Fatigue Signals
Compared to previous fluctuations, the recent price movements show weaker momentum. The price fluctuations of Wave 1 and Wave 3 were more intense, but Wave 5 shows signs of weakening intensity, which is typical at the end of a cycle. This may indicate that the bull market is entering its final stage, making tracking and trading Ethereum increasingly difficult and raising risk levels.
Correction Phase: Focus on Support Areas
Ethereum's price is still in a correction phase and may form the second wave in an ABC structure. As long as the support levels between $2,470 and $3,167 remain intact, there is still potential for the price to rise. The ideal target for this rebound is $3,572.
Bearish Shift: Key Support Level Broken
However, if Ethereum's price breaks below the support area of $2,470, the outlook will turn bearish. Currently, the market is still in a correction phase, but breaking through key resistance levels (especially between $3,415 and $3,648) will confirm whether a more bullish trend is forming.
