Finally, the bad news has arrived; the $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road is about to enter the market for sale.
Releasing such news at this point has a deeper meaning that everyone should understand. This is to trick you into not adding positions and to persuade you to give up your chips. Looking back, every time such news appears, the market has not yet peaked. And when the market truly reaches a peak, or a temporary peak, think about it: how many times has such news appeared during a six-month or even a year-long adjustment period?
From the 4-hour level:
Bitcoin is currently in the third phase of the overall adjustment, having formed small degree pushes since the drop from 102,724, and it found support at the second support level given yesterday.
From the 3-day level:
Currently, the MA30 moving average slant value is 87,987, and this value will continue to rise with time. This trend aligns with the triangle trend strategy (at the front end of the triangle, the market experiences FOMO with little selling pressure, causing prices to continue rising; at the back end of the triangle, selling pressure increases, and prices begin to pull back). Moreover, this level's indicators have not yet fully recovered.
If the K-line does not drop below the 3-day MA30 level, then the extreme time for this adjustment is expected to be from late January to early February.
Today is the U.S. Day of Mourning, and U.S. stocks will stop trading tonight. Affected by this, the liquidity of today's market will be significantly lower. In this situation, investors are focusing on trading this Friday, when U.S. stocks will resume trading, and some important macroeconomic data will also be released.
The rebound observation point we focus on is around 96,300, which is precisely the first support level mentioned yesterday. At this key position, we will closely monitor the strength of the market's performance. If the market can show a strong rebound at this position, then we may look forward to further increases in the market, especially whether it can break through higher levels to confirm the upward momentum.
Therefore, today everyone might as well maintain a calm mindset and patiently wait for Friday's market signals.
Is the force of this BTC decline strong? Has it initiated a downward trend?
First, let's look at the first question: how strong is the downward force?
From the chart, I have drawn three waves of decline, with the first wave showing a significant drop and large trading volume.
The second wave of decline is smaller than the first wave, with volume also smaller than the first wave, and the price did not break the previous low.
The third wave of decline is smaller than the second wave, with volume also smaller than the second wave, and the price did not break the low of the second wave of decline, while the high point broke the second wave.
Therefore, comparing the forces of these three waves of decline, each wave is weaker than the previous one, which is reflected in the market.
Let's look at the second question: has a downward trend been initiated?
What is a downward trend? Simply put, it is when both the highs and lows are gradually decreasing; in each round of decline, the price breaks below the previous low but fails to break above the previous high during rebounds.
However, from the chart, it can be clearly seen that after the first wave of decline on December 20 showed signs of stopping, neither the second nor the third wave of declines broke the previous low.
This indicates that the current market is not in a downward trend, but rather in a oscillating trend.
Therefore, simply asserting that a significant drop will follow just because prices have fallen in the past two days clearly shows a lack of understanding of the market, being completely swayed by market emotions.
When the market is down, one worries about further declines, fears breaking new lows, and is terrified of significant drops, but fails to analyze what this round of decline actually means; isn't that just scaring oneself?
The U.S. non-farm data is about to be released; will the market turn upside down?
This Friday, the non-farm data for December will be released. The market predicts the median number of new jobs to be 153,000, slightly lower than November's data. Given the ongoing changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the labor market, this report is likely to become the 'trigger point' for the market. Whether you are engaged in stock investment or participating in cryptocurrency trading, you must pay close attention!
What will happen if the data falls short of expectations?
This may further strengthen the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. After all, a poor performance in the job market often means a slowdown in economic growth, which greatly increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
For the crypto market, the liquidity easing brought by interest rate cuts is undoubtedly a positive factor and is likely to drive Bitcoin prices up.
Key influence on the crypto market:
1️⃣ Risk assets are returning funds: If the data shows weakness, funds may shift to safe-haven assets, with #Bitcoin playing the role of 'digital gold' and attracting significant capital inflows.
2️⃣ Market sentiment rebounds: Bitcoin's recent performance has been volatile, but the non-farm data may reignite interest in digital currencies, especially when the Federal Reserve's stance is dovish.
3️⃣ Volatility surges: Regardless of the outcome, non-farm data often intensifies short-term market fluctuations, potentially providing a great opportunity for short-term traders.
If the data falls short of expectations, Bitcoin may very well experience a rapid rebound, with the target price possibly returning to over $100,000. However, it should be noted that such a rebound is more based on short-term sentiment; long-term trends still depend on policy and economic fundamentals.
The whale has increased positions again! What secrets lie behind PEPE's big move?
PEPE market is making big moves again! A whale skilled at buying low and selling high has once again increased their position by $7.14 million just 14 hours ago, rapidly raising their holdings to 79.13 billion PEPE, worth about $14.23 million.
From December 20, 2024 to January 3, 2025, this whale withdrew 610.6 billion tokens from Kraken at an average price of $0.00001732. Now, the whale has realized a floating profit of $103,000, and the operation is quite precise!
Will the market soar or plummet? What is the whale's strategy behind the scenes? Will PEPE's future follow in the footsteps of this whale to reach new heights?
This wave of increased positions may indicate a deep adjustment in the market or an impending explosion; does the whale's confidence in PEPE mean that opportunities are just around the corner?
The characteristic of this bull market is that it is relatively difficult to navigate, with rapid rises and falls interspersed with slow rises and sharp declines, making the rhythm hard to grasp. We need to respond with strategy: do not cut losses in the panic of a downturn, and do not be greedy during a rebound.
1. Focus on hot tracks.
Rapid rotation is the main feature of this bull market; we identify hot tracks (if not, then BES). Altcoins are divided into three levels:
① Level is a hot coin, several times the low;
② Level belongs to the majority, their space is only in the ultra-dipped rebound when they fall to a point where they can't drop any further (around one time the lowest point is common);
③ Level is a worthless coin, having dropped to a point where it can't drop any further, and a rebound of even one times is not possible; such coins can be abandoned.
2. On-chain bull markets are greater than secondary bull markets.
Whenever the secondary market is filled with sorrow, the on-chain market has actually gone through round after round of bull markets. From MEME to AI AGENT, new things keep emerging. This round of market is mostly concentrated on-chain, while the secondary market always makes us 'suffer', so don't be 'fooled' again!
In fact, some clues can be gleaned from the actions of major exchanges. It is clear that almost all the power in this round is focused on DEX, which is the trend. As for why some places in the secondary market remain disappointing, perhaps it is accumulating strength, waiting for an explosion, but I feel it is indeed a lack of funds.
3. Not learning will definitely lead to elimination.
In this ever-changing crypto market, I believe the volatility of Bitcoin may gradually decrease in the future. At that time, trading methods may need to emulate forex, utilizing high leverage to achieve profits.
As for the altcoin market, it seems currently difficult to find new opportunities to break the existing situation. Although some claim that the altcoin season has ended, I firmly believe it still exists. However, I will not wait blindly, but will calm down to learn and actively gain insight into new trends.
If new hot areas emerge in the future, I will definitely do my best to seize opportunities to make money. Therefore, I plan to focus my energy on the AI and blockchain fields (of course, not putting all funds on the line).
There will be many opportunities ahead, let us work together to strive for abundant harvests and have a prosperous new year.
