Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 5.5% in the past 24 hours, falling below the $100,000 mark, despite a 38% increase in trading volume to $67 billion. The drop comes as key metrics, including the 7-day MVRV and increased whale activity, are showing bearish signals, suggesting increasing selling pressure.
While BTC’s EMA lines maintain a bullish outlook, the rapid decline in the short-term EMAs suggests a potential bearish reversal if a death cross occurs. The next few days will be crucial as BTC approaches critical support and resistance levels, which could shape its next directional move.
MVRV ratio shows that BTC may continue to decline:
Bitcoin’s 7-day market cap to realized value (MVRV) ratio is currently at -2.63%, a significant drop from 5.6% recorded two days ago. The MVRV ratio measures whether BTC holders are in profit or loss by comparing the market cap (current price) to the realized value (average purchase price).
Negative MVRV values, such as the current one, indicate that BTC holders are in a losing position, which may indicate a period of market capitulation or undervaluation.
Historical trends suggest that BTC’s 7-day MVRV could drop further to levels around -5% or -6% before a recovery begins, as observed between December 20 and December 23.
If this pattern repeats, BTC may face additional selling pressure in the short term, which may test lower support levels.
Whales in Bitcoin Market Accumulate at Slow Pace:
The number of Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC hit a monthly high of 2,108 on December 16 before falling sharply to 2,061 just a day later. Tracking whale activity is crucial because these large holders can significantly influence the market through their buying or selling behavior.
When the number of whales decreases, it often indicates profit-taking or low confidence, which can put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, increased whale activity usually reflects accumulation, which indicates confidence and supports price stability or growth.
After hitting a monthly low of 2,049 between December 24 and December 26, the number of Bitcoin whales has steadily recovered, currently standing at 2,059 as of January 7. This gradual rise indicates renewed accumulation by large investors, which is a positive sign for market sentiment.
The recovery from the lows may indicate that whales are regaining confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to rise, although they are not accumulating Bitcoin quickly, which may indicate that they are still waiting to see where the Bitcoin price is headed.
BTC Price Prediction: Could It Reach $100,000 Soon?
Bitcoin EMA lines show that the short-term EMA lines are still above the long-term lines, maintaining a bullish structure. However, the short-term lines are rapidly declining, indicating a weakening momentum.
If this trend continues and a death cross forms – where the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA – it could signal a bearish reversal. In this scenario, Bitcoin price could test support at 93,400, and a break below this level could push the price further down to 91,200.
Conversely, if the current downtrend is halted and bullish momentum returns, Bitcoin price could test the resistance at $98,800. A successful break above this level could pave the way for further gains, with $99,900 as the next target.
If this momentum continues, Bitcoin could aim to retest levels around $102,000, signaling a potential recovery from the recent decline. The outcome largely depends on whether buying pressure can counter the bearish signals emerging from the EMA lines.