Previously, when I was at a space event at XT, I made a guess that there might not be a general or even round-up alt season in the first half of the year.
The main reason is that there might not be another rate cut in the first half of the year. Even if there is a rate cut in the second quarter, the general alt season will not come so soon.
But I think there will be a local alt season. I thought it was RWA at the time, but now it seems to be AI.
Reason for guessing (this one is really a guess): Generally speaking, there are 8 FOMC meetings each year (basically once every 1.5 months). The Fed's December dot plot predicts 2 rate cuts in 2025. I averaged 8 and 2, which is 5 times.
That is, if there is no rate cut in January, March, and May, it will be about the same if it starts in June.
Reason for guessing 2: The dot plot is once every quarter, and the probability of a policy turnaround in March, June, September, and December is higher.
In March, Trump's new policy has just been implemented, and we may have to wait and see the effect. September may be a little late. The interest rate cut in June may also be a balance between economic recession and inflation.
Blind reason three: May is poor, June is desperate, and July is turning around. Continuing to cut interest rates from June is also more in line with the economic cycle of the US stock market within the year. It is conducive to revitalizing the economy in the summer.
The above is purely blind, and I have my own positions.
After clearing the copycat positions on December 19, I kept BTC\ETH\BNB, BGB XT GT platform coins and didn’t sell them. I kept them for mining, and then after mining, I didn’t analyze them and exchanged them back to platform coins to continue mining, keeping them for snowballing.
In addition, I entered the AI market on the chain. I bought swarms yesterday, and the cost was more than 0.37. In addition, I bought MCS on the chain, which is also a swarms ecosystem.
I didn’t buy much. Now all the total should be less than 40% of the position.
