Ether could reach a remarkable high of $12,000 by the end of 2025, according to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at the options DeFi protocol Derive.
This potential 257% surge from its current trading price of $3,361, as per the data by CoinMarketCap, hinges on two pivotal factors: the successful deployment of Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade and a supportive regulatory environment under Donald Trump’s presidency.
Pectra Upgrade and Regulatory Optimism
Dawson shared his insights in a recent interview, emphasizing that Ethereum’s success would require significant adoption of real-world assets (RWAs), robust inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and expanded utility in emerging tech sectors like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and AI agents. He also highlighted Ethereum’s growing relevance in AI applications, with its layer-2 scaling network, Base, becoming a hub for AI agents.
The Pectra upgrade, slated for the first quarter of 2025, is expected to improve Ethereum’s efficiency and scalability, potentially attracting broader institutional and retail adoption. Dawson believes that enhanced interoperability driven by layer-2 solutions could further solidify Ethereum’s position in the crypto market.
Bullish Options Market Suggests Ether Price Surge
While Ether’s price has been relatively steady around $3,500 since December 20, the derivatives market suggests a bullish outlook. Dawson pointed out that on Derive.xyz, call options significantly outnumber puts, with 250% more open interest in calls. This reflects a strong appetite among traders for upward price movement.
However, Dawson acknowledged potential risks to Ether’s bullish trajectory. A failure to attract institutional interest for a spot Ether ETF or losing ground to competitors like Solana could push ETH below $2,000 in a bearish scenario. He warned that other layer-1 blockchains offering higher risk-reward opportunities might challenge Ethereum’s dominance in a bull market.
Long-term holder confidence in Ether has been rising, with the percentage of investors holding their tokens for over a year increasing from 59% in January 2024 to 75% by December, according to IntoTheBlock. This contrasts with Bitcoin, which saw a decline in long-term holders over the same period, reflecting growing optimism about Ethereum’s future prospects.
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