Whether Bitcoin will see a local surge in the future
It mainly depends on two points: one is Trump's policy, and the other is the expectation of interest rate cuts. Since Trump's policies are difficult to implement in recent months, the focus is on the expectation of interest rate cuts. If the probability of interest rate cuts in March is greatly reduced, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may fall; otherwise, they may rise. If the probability of interest rate cuts hovers between 40%-60%, the market will most likely show a volatile trend, and investors should promptly cash in when they have made a certain profit.
After the data came out last night, the probability of interest rate cuts in March dropped to about 40%, and the probability of interest rate cuts in May was about 50%. In addition, Bitcoin has rebounded for 8 consecutive days before, and it is normal to fall back. At present, Bitcoin is still in a state of volatility. Unless the probability of interest rate cuts in March falls below 20%, it is possible for Bitcoin to approach or even fall below 91,500. Next, we need to focus on the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th and the speech after the FOMC meeting on the 29th to further judge the direction of the market.
