ChainCatcher reported that according to CoinDesk, the US Treasury market volatility indicator MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Expectation) index has continued to rise since hitting a bottom of 82 points in mid-December, and has risen to 102.78 points on January 8. As the world's second largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often indicates a tightening financial environment, which may trigger risk aversion in various financial markets.
The latest data showed that the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, suggesting strong economic resilience and continued inflationary pressure, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields across the board. Among them, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (a new high since November 23), and the 10-year yield rose to 4.68% (the highest level since May).
The market observes that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index are currently exhibiting a "head and shoulders" pattern, which corresponds with the movement of the MOVE index. Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE index had significantly dropped, leading to a broad rise in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken in mid-December when the MOVE index hit its low. On January 8, Bitcoin fell 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is currently dominating the broader market trends, and until the treasury market stabilizes, risk assets are unlikely to regain upward momentum.
