TechFlow reported on January 8 that according to CoinDesk, the US Treasury market volatility indicator MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Expectation) index has continued to rise since hitting a bottom of 82 points in mid-December, and has risen to 102.78 points on January 8, indicating that key market dynamics are changing. As the world's second largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often indicates a tightening financial environment, which may trigger risk aversion in various financial markets.
The latest data showed that the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, suggesting strong economic resilience and continued inflationary pressure, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields across the board. Among them, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (a new high since November 23), and the 10-year yield rose to 4.68% (the highest level since May).
Market observation indicates that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index currently exhibit a "head and shoulders" pattern, which corresponds with the movement of the MOVE Index. Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE Index has significantly declined, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken in mid-December when the MOVE Index hit its low. On January 8, Bitcoin fell by 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is currently dominating broader market trends, making it difficult for risk assets to regain upward momentum before stability is achieved in the Treasury market.
