As the cryptocurrency market rapidly grows, the ripple effects of technological revolution are gradually becoming apparent. Fidelity's digital asset company points out in a research report titled 'Look Ahead' that 2025 could be an important turning point for digital assets moving from the margins to the mainstream.
(Franklin Templeton releases 2025 Cryptocurrency Trend Outlook: The U.S. may return to being a global innovation center.)
Is it too late to enter the market now?
Digital asset research analyst Matt Hogan wrote that 2024 is a significant year for the digital asset market. With the blooming of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and the optimism surrounding the U.S. elections at the end of the year, the crypto market has experienced two waves of significant acceleration. However, for many, one question remains: 'Am I too late?'
(2024 is a bumper year for ETFs, and more crypto ETFs will be launched in 2025.)
In this regard, he quoted economist Carlota Perez's theory of technological revolutions, emphasizing that true technological revolutions typically change multiple industries and reshape economic structures. Bitcoin and digital assets may be in the 'diffusion stage' of this theory, which is the process where technology begins to embed itself across various fields and industries.
We believe that 2025 could become a key year, with many signs indicating that the early stage of large-scale diffusion and adoption has already begun.
The similarities between the development of the internet and digital assets.
The adoption of innovative technologies is often nonlinear, beginning with fringe groups and gradually entering mainstream society. The evolution of Bitcoin and blockchain technology reflects the early adoption history of the internet, from its initial experimental phase to gradual legitimization and large-scale application.
Currently, we see blockchain technology continuously modularizing to adapt to different uses and developing privacy-enhancing tools to meet the public's demand for data ownership. Although challenges remain, digital assets still have the potential to find a balance between mainstream acceptance and commercialization.
(In-depth understanding: Modular narratives make a comeback! How do settlement layers, execution layers, and aggregation layers bring new opportunities?)
The correlation between Bitcoin and macroeconomics remains to be observed.
Bitcoin is often likened to 'digital gold investment.' Due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing of monetary policy, increased liquidity may continue to support Bitcoin's price performance. However, as inflation may rise again, Bitcoin's performance in that environment remains to be seen.
Bitcoin and Gold Price Comparison Chart
History shows that gold typically performs well during high inflation periods, and Bitcoin, as a similar asset, may have the same potential.
Prospects for Ethereum L2 Development
Ethereum continues to adopt a capacity expansion-focused roadmap, especially through L2 technology to reduce transaction costs and improve efficiency. Despite a decline in underlying network transaction volume, Ethereum still maintains its position as the developer's preferred platform.
Facing 2025, Ethereum focuses on enhancing scalability and network performance, with several upgrades including Prague and Electra about to be launched. Hogan believes these improvements will facilitate broader adoption of Ethereum, especially in the L2 field.
(Will 2025 be Ethereum's 'Golden Decade'? The community presents several revolutionary predictions: ETH price may reach $15,000.)
Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins are key.
Stablecoins have become one of the main applications of blockchain technology, with their usage extending from trading liquidity to global payments and deposits. In 2024, the transfer value of stablecoins reached $12 trillion, demonstrating their important position in the global economy. However, a proper regulatory framework may be needed to truly accelerate stablecoin adoption.
The EU will launch the (Crypto Asset Market Regulation) (MiCA) in 2024, where comprehensive stablecoin regulation provides legal protection for users. Other jurisdictions may also follow suit, promoting further development of stablecoins.
(USDT's market cap shrinks due to the effectiveness of MiCA, Tether chooses to invest rather than sacrifice profits to indirectly participate in the EU market.)
DeFi combined with AI becomes a hot topic again.
In 2025, decentralized finance (DeFi) is expected to continue innovating, especially in dedicated blockchains, L2 scaling solutions, and applications combining artificial intelligence (AI). New technologies like Rollups and AI-driven governance tools may further enhance the efficiency and scalability of DeFi.
(Bitwise CEO's 2025 prediction: Will AI and tokenization technology reshape capital markets?)
Trends in Bitcoin adoption by countries and governments.
The launch of Bitcoin spot trading products in 2024 has attracted demand from institutional and retail investors. We predict that in 2025, more countries and governments may begin to emulate Bhutan and El Salvador, and even the United States, incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic asset allocation, especially in response to pressures from high inflation and fiscal deficits.
We expect more countries, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries to seek to allocate funds in the Bitcoin space, potentially doing so secretly and non-publicly.
(Bitwise submitted the 'Bitcoin Standard Company ETF', including MicroStrategy, mining companies, and game developers.)
2025: The Beginning of a New Era for Digital Assets
Finally, although the speculative frenzy may have passed, the diffusion and adoption of digital assets seem to be just beginning. From Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins to DeFi, these innovative technologies are quietly changing the global economic structure.
Hogan summarized that the key question now is no longer 'Should we participate?' but 'How to actively participate in this transformation?'
In 2025, it may become a milestone for a new era, expected to witness digital assets further embedded in the global economic and technological structure.
This article, the 2025 Digital Asset Outlook Report (Look Ahead), lets Fidelity tell you if you can still enter the market. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
