Many fans asked if there will be a local surge in the market next?
To determine whether there will be a surge in the market, we need to look at two points:
(1) Trump's policies
(2) Expectations of interest rate cuts.
Trump's policies will not be easy to implement in the first few months, so just focus on the expectations of interest rate cuts. If the expectations of interest rate cuts in March are greatly reduced, Bitcoin altcoins will fall; vice versa.
If the probability is vague, for example, it hovers between 40-60%, then the market is volatile. You must be aware of volatility when there is volatility, and you must pocket good profits, and you cannot be sloppy.
After some data came out last night, the probability of a rate cut in March was reduced to 4 levels, and the probability of a rate cut in May was around 5 levels. In addition, Bitcoin has rebounded for 8 consecutive days, so it is normal for it to fall back, but Bitcoin is still just volatile. Unless the probability of a rate cut in March falls below 20%, it is possible to approach 91,500 or even fall below it.
Later, we will pay attention to the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech after the FOM meeting on the 29th to determine how the market will develop.
