Author: Revc
The AI Agent sector has recently attracted a large number of investors due to extreme volatility, and its high yield potential creates a unique trading experience. MEME trading stimulates excitement and addiction through 'rollercoaster-like jumps' in balance, with the instant release of dopamine testing investors psychologically and emotionally.
For investors, while enjoying the profits brought by market volatility, it is essential to be vigilant against the erosion of addiction psychology and avoid falling into emotional operations. Additionally, through in-depth research on a project's long-term value and technical potential, one can find more robust investment directions amidst volatility. The market needs to balance rationality and passion, rather than being dominated by a single stimulus.
Currently, MEME project screening follows two lines: 'speculation' and value discovery. This article analyzes high-frequency 'speculative' operational methods, revealing how professional MEME creators deplete investors' energy and principal.
1 hour, 15 times case
Taking the MEME token Agora as an example, investors, after preliminary judgment that the project has the potential for an increase, then engage in scalping trading arbitrage. Multiple scalping trades quickly double the investor's principal, and this is just the beginning. After the penultimate buy, Agora rapidly surged to a 15-fold increase within 30 minutes. Due to the lack of take-profit and stop-loss options on the web trading interface, the actual profit is far from 15 times. However, stimulated by the 15-fold increase, investors fall into a loop of continued speculation, ultimately losing almost everything amidst the volatility.
PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy where traders profit from short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures, or other financial instruments. The core idea of scalping is to quickly enter and exit trades to capture small profits from market's short-term fluctuations, accumulating gains through multiple trades.
30-second analysis to 10-minute capital zeroing 'strategy'
MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, while PVP trading has evolved a framework of indicators for project screening. In this model, the analysis and execution phases are extremely compressed, usually taking only a few minutes, especially when a project's market cap just reaches N times the internal market cap (approximately $68,000). At this time, N is usually less than 10, meaning the market cap is below $600,000, and market competition is exceptionally fierce. However, once the project peaks and then falls back, these new listings are often quickly abandoned by investors, resulting in a sharp decline in interest.
1. Project judgment and screening: On the new listing page, sort by launch time, at this time the project usually has a trading volume 3-5 times its market cap, with the blue-chip index in the range of 0-1.2%. During rapid screening on the primary page, one can focus on the following indicators: fast growth of address count, relatively low market cap (avoiding projects with market caps reaching ten million dollars), and projects that have not seen drastic pullbacks within 1-5 minutes and are still continuously hitting new highs.
2. Release time: 30 minutes is usually a critical dividing line. Most projects begin to show signs of market crashes and netting in about 30 minutes after release (data sourced around 6 PM Beijing time).
3. Market cap size: Projects with a market cap around $300,000 are generally reasonable, while those reaching the ten million dollar level may carry a higher runaway risk.
4. Runaway risk: The GMGN platform will mark the developer's operational records in historical projects, such as withdrawing liquidity, crashing the market, or the developer running away. These marks are important indicators for assessing project stability.
5. Blue-chip index: As a growth indicator, the blue-chip index reflects investors' purchasing power and community consensus by analyzing the status of blue-chip tokens held by investors, providing a side basis for judging project health.
6. Order book health indicator (X = trading volume / market cap): Typically, in the early stages of a project, the X value is close to 2, and then shows a downward-opening parabolic trend. When the parabola peaks, trading volume hits a new high, and the market cap approaches a cycle high, indicating that PVP trading activity has reached a climax. After that, trading volume decreases, market cap declines, and 'smart money' begins to withdraw.
Additionally, trading volume can provide a preliminary judgment on tokens. For example, a single trade amount hitting a new high may indicate the entry of large funds, which has positive implications for the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide statistics on the trend of single trade amounts or trading frequency, so relying solely on trading volume data may not be sufficient for comprehensive market analysis.
7. Marked traders: Typically, these are leading MEME communities and DEX platforms, which reflect whether the publicity has covered mainstream communities. However, such addresses usually withdraw funds quickly.
8. TOP10 address indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the top ten addresses by token holdings, showing the proportion of their holdings to the total supply. Generally speaking, a holding ratio of less than 20% for the top ten addresses is considered healthy, indicating a more dispersed token distribution, a strong community consensus, and a relatively low risk of sell-offs.
9. Profit expectation formula: As the market cap of a token grows from $300,000 to $3,000,000, its success rate is often very low. Investors typically invest 1-10 SOL in a single project, but excessive liquidity addition may lead to a price surge, triggering the greed of holders and quick profit-taking. For example, assuming the success rate of the projects investors screen is P=10%, and funds go to zero after failure, then according to 1/P=10, a single project needs to achieve a 1000% return to break even. In this case, projects with market caps in the hundreds of thousands of dollars resemble a probability game.
10. New coin priority strategy: As the screening and analysis framework for MEME tokens matures, creators often prefer to issue new tokens to more easily manipulate relevant indicators. This new coin issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for 'innovation' but also increases the likelihood of attracting funds in the short term.
11. Same concept, prioritize Base: Taking the recent Percy concept promoted by Musk as an example, the performance of the Base network is significantly better than that of Solana. This is because users on the Base network are mostly seasoned DeFi users, with purchasing power usually 3-4 times that of Solana users. Additionally, whale entries are more frequently observed in trades on Base, further enhancing its market performance and liquidity.
12. Doubling capital strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, users are easily influenced by emotional fluctuations during the process. The 'doubling capital' strategy is a relatively scientific and psychologically less burdensome method. By retrieving the initial investment after doubling returns, investors can more easily hold onto the remaining assets long-term, thereby freeing themselves from the pressure and troubles caused by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Motivation analysis of pool adjustments: In medium to large projects, investors typically pair tokens with SOL to invest in Raydium liquidity pools to obtain up to 999.99% 24-hour APR. The core essence of DeFi is to short volatility, and when paired assets experience one-sided trends, liquidity providers may face impermanent loss. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it usually means they are optimistic about the corresponding asset's short-term rise, but the extent may be limited, reflecting signs of short-term consolidation. Conversely, when investors reduce pool assets, it often indicates a bearish attitude towards a particular asset, possibly accompanied by sell-offs or readjusting the asset's exchange ratio.
14. Observing the actions of new addresses: Regular market making is considered a danger signal, such as large amounts of transactions buying and selling against each other. One can also study the trading habits of developer addresses.
By understanding the above methods and conducting a preliminary analysis of internal盘类 projects, congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME operators. They will create a perfect MEME on the indicators that fit your project analysis and screening framework, subsequently crafting a narrative, AI + founder interaction + hackathons, and the emotional fluctuations brought by high-frequency trading will cause you to rapidly lose judgment on the project, breaking trading discipline and leading to losses. Therefore, this article is a 'MEME addiction prevention article'; no matter where investors learn about the 'wealth password', information asymmetry still exists because PVP definitely requires someone to take over the position. Therefore, new Web3 users should avoid getting addicted to the MEME track and slowly cultivate their ability for value discovery.
For framework-based AI Agent projects, one can pay attention to the Forks page in the GitHub repository to see which projects have referenced Eliza's code. However, even so, one should cautiously evaluate the project's development progress and actual potential to avoid blindly following investment trends.
The last MEME impact suggestion - arrange your time reasonably and take care to rest!!
Summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance but also fully showcases the potential of cutting-edge concepts like AI Agents in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. Such highly volatile markets provide quick profit opportunities for keen investors while also driving the exploration and development of blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. Investors in this environment need to continuously optimize their real-time decision-making abilities and market adaptability to find advantageous strategies and apply them in high-risk markets.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also entails significant risks. Severe price fluctuations can easily trigger emotional trading, causing investors to fall into a cycle of 'blind speculation.' The dopamine rush from short-term gains may distract from the logic of long-term value investing, and over-reliance on short-term trading often leads to substantial principal losses. Especially for projects lacking solid technical support or real application scenarios, once the hype fades, they can easily become mere speculative tools, resulting in high losses for investors. Such losses not only undermine individual investment confidence but may also negatively impact the healthy development of the entire cryptocurrency industry, further exacerbating market instability.
For investors, rationality and a long-term perspective are particularly important. When participating in MEME trading, one should combine technical analysis with project value exploration, avoiding being swept up by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and reward can one achieve true sustainable profits in this highly volatile market.
