This cycle feels unusual. Why? Normally, the social risk indicator should be near all-time highs by now, signaling widespread retail interest in crypto. Instead, it’s near all-time lows. This suggests that the average retail investor isn’t paying attention to crypto yet. It seems this cycle is being driven primarily by institutional players, leading me to consider two potential scenarios:

Scenario 1: There won’t be a broad altseason. Major liquidity will remain concentrated in Bitcoin and a few selected altcoins.

Scenario 2: We’re entering an extended supercycle.

I’m leaning towards the first scenario. If that’s the case, most investors are in deep trouble. Success will depend on choosing the right coins to invest in. That’s why I consistently stress the importance of focusing on coins with strong price action and an established uptrend. These are the projects most likely to attract significant liquidity and deliver strong returns.