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This week in review
This week, from December 30 to January 6, the sugar orange peaked near $98,174, with a low close to $91,530, reaching an oscillation range of about 8.14%.
Observe the chip distribution chart, where there are large chip transactions around 95,000, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 about 1.7 million;
90000-100000 about 1.94 million;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 is 80%;
Among them, the likelihood of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 70%.
Important news aspects
Economic news aspects
NVIDIA's market value surpassed Apple's, becoming the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with NVIDIA's intraday market value reaching $3.72 trillion, while Apple's market value is about $3.719 trillion.
Federal Reserve's Barkin stated: The fundamental expectation for 2025 is positive, with more upside potential for economic growth than downside risk. The uncertainty in financial markets seems to have decreased, and the market's predictions for the policy path align with the Fed's median expectations. Although the inflation rate has not returned to the 2% target, it is believed that restrictive measures are not needed like before to achieve this, and the outlook remains optimistic.
Goldman Sachs reports: It is expected that the S&P 500 index will rise to 6,500 points by the end of this year (currently at 5,990 points), with a total return of 25% for the S&P 500 index last year, marking the second consecutive year with a return exceeding 20%. This year is expected to be 11%, and next year 7%.
Goldman Sachs reports: In its prediction for the Fed's rate cuts this year, it expects a reduction of 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The core PCE inflation from September to November last year had an annualized increase of 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but lower than the annual increase of 2.8%, still in line with the ongoing decline.
A key factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet is that reserves in the US banking system have fallen below $3 trillion, to $2.89 trillion, the lowest level since October 2020. Wall Street strategists believe the Fed's minimum comfortable reserve level is between $3 trillion and $3.25 trillion.
The New York Fed survey shows that two-thirds of respondents expect the reduction of the balance sheet (QT) to end in the first or second quarter of 2025.
Regarding crypto ecosystem news
The Block reports: Derivatives traders are currently focusing on call options with a strike price of $120,000, which are popular options on Deribit, with a nominal open interest of $1.52 billion, and the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.24, highlighting market sentiment.
Analyst Valentin Fournier stated that after the holidays, institutional investment interest has rebounded, which may pave the way for a strong rebound.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reports that the rise in gold over the past year has far exceeded the trends in the US dollar and real bond yields, which may reflect a re-emergence of 'devaluation trades.' As the structural significance of gold and BTC continues to rise, devaluation trades will persist.
Amberdata reports that Trump's inauguration on January 20 could be a catalyst; the time around the inauguration and the following days could see bullish statements or policies that may further drive BTC prices.
Satoshi Action Fund (SAF) CEO Dennis Porter stated that the likelihood of Trump establishing BTC reserves in 2025 is 40%.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expects that the US will retain the current holdings of about 200,000 BTC and subsequently increase holdings by about 500,000 BTC. If Trump, Congress, and the Treasury are in agreement, the Federal Reserve may become the last obstacle to BTC reserves.
CoinShares research report: Global digital asset investment product inflows reached a historic high of $44.2 billion in 2024, nearly four times the record set in 2021, with BTC inflows of $38 billion, ETH inflows of $4.8 billion, and other altcoins inflows of $813 million.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term circumstances; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state.
Mid-term exploration: to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze the short-term market situation; and the likelihood of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
US crypto ETF reserve positions
The situation of large transfers within the exchange
Total selling pressure in the spot market
The long-short state of the market
(Below is the US crypto ETF reserve position)
The US ETF position reserves show that a large amount of funds flowed in to buy after the year-end, with buying intentions similar to those in November 2024.
External funds' willingness to buy is quite strong.
(Below is the situation of large transfers within the exchange)
Large transfers within the exchange indicate initial buying intentions, suggesting that internal funds from whales are also relatively active.
(Below is the total selling pressure in the spot market)
Looking at spot selling, the selling pressure of the spot is continuously decreasing, returning to the level of early November 2024.
(Below is the long-short state of the market)
The long-short state of the market is from the latest internal model, which is currently not open to the public.
Currently shows that the market has transitioned from long pressure to preliminary short pressure.
Initial short squeezes are forming.
In terms of derivatives, this is a good thing.
Mid-term exploration
Positivity of network sentiment
Liquidity supply volume
High-weight selling pressure
Net position trend of BTC on exchanges
Circulation proportion of ETH on exchanges
Comprehensive score of USDC purchasing power
(Below is the positivity of network sentiment)
Network sentiment shows slight signs of recovery, suggesting that the emotions of participants in the market have not extended towards pessimism.
(Below is the liquidity supply volume)
Liquidity is slowly recovering, and the supply situation in the market may also have improved slightly.
If this pattern is maintained, there may still be a certain amount of supply supporting the market.
This may keep the coin price at a high position, making it more difficult to short.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
High-weight selling pressure is slowly decreasing, possibly indicating that key selling pressure forces in the market are also shrinking their impact.
If the situation continues to converge, the market will gradually find an internal balance amidst oscillation.
(Below is the trend net position of BTC on exchanges)
BTC still has significant demand, and outflows from exchanges remain substantial.
This will narrow the potential selling pressure in the market.
(Below is the circulation proportion of ETH on exchanges)
The circulation proportion of ETH on exchanges is gradually decreasing; the market may currently be inclined towards BTC accumulation as a hedging activity.
Or the stability of BTC secondary pricing is higher than that of native blockchain projects within the circle.
(Below is the comprehensive score of USDC purchasing power)
USDC users are still widely participating in on-site trading, and this part of the users may be able to maintain the oscillation structure in a relatively balanced state.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention trading ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New and active addresses
Net position of the sugar orange exchange
Net position of the Tita exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin net position on exchanges
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: the risk coefficient is close to the red area, with increased risk in derivatives.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
The risk coefficient is approaching the red area again, but the market performance is oscillating. It is expected that this week may see dual explosions in derivatives.
(Below is the options intention trading ratio)
The put option ratio is at the median, and the trading volume is at a low level.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume continues to shrink during market oscillations, indicating that the next large fluctuation may not be far off.
(Below is the options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has not changed significantly.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit and loss transfer volume)
There has been no panic selling in the past three weeks; this week, both market optimism and panic sentiment have reached bottom areas, and significant fluctuations are expected in the short term.
(Below is the number of new and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at the median.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of significant outflow accumulation, with ETH experiencing slight outflow accumulation.
(Below is the net position of the sugar orange exchange)
BTC net position on exchanges continues to see significant outflows accumulate.
(Below is the net position of E-Tai exchange)
Overall slight outflow of ETH.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
BTC has a small amount of high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss.
(Below is the USDT exchange net position)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week
On-chain transaction data rating: willingness to buy at 90,000; willingness to sell at 100,000.
(Below is Coinbase on-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around 85,000 to 90,000 price levels;
There is a willingness to sell around the 100,000 price level.
(Below is Binance on-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around 85,000 to 90,000 price levels;
There is a willingness to sell around the 100,000 price level.
(Below is Bitfinex on-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy around 85,000 to 90,000 price levels;
There is a willingness to sell around the 100,000 price level.
This week's summary:
Summary of news:
This year, the macro expectation is a decrease in interest rates by 75 basis points;
This year should be a year of crypto harvest cycle; bullish in the first quarter.
As the amount of funds increases, the rise will not be as exaggerated as before.
On-chain long-term insights:
External funds in ETFs show strong buying demand;
Large transfers to the exchange have shifted from inflow to buying, with increased demand from whales;
The spot selling pressure is relatively small, returning to early November 2024 levels;
The market is transitioning from long pressure to short pressure, with short squeezes forming.
Market tone:
The market is gradually working together to push upwards.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Network sentiment is gradually recovering;
Liquidity is slowly recovering;
High-weight selling pressure is gradually converging;
BTC still has a significant amount of coins accumulated;
On-site users have a relatively hedging tendency;
USDC is still widely participating in the market.
Market tone:
Oscillation
There may not yet be a critical point for a major correction in the market, or an overall pessimistic atmosphere;
The current oscillation structure may not have exposed risk traces, further observation is needed.
On-chain short-term observation:
The risk coefficient is close to the red area, with increased risk in derivatives.
New active addresses are at the median.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Overall BTC net position on exchanges is in a state of significant outflow, with ETH experiencing a slight outflow.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
On-chain transaction data shows willingness to buy at 90,000; willingness to sell at 100,000.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 is 80%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 70%.
Market tone:
This week's chip chart observation is consistent with last week's, with many market 'diamond hands.'
Expectations are consistent with last week; without panic selling, the current price level oscillates. If there is panic selling, pay attention to the short-term holder cost line around 86K. If positions are relatively low, this period is a relatively good opportunity to enter.
Risk warning:
The above is all market discussion and exploration and does not provide directional opinions for investment; please be cautious and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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