Pierre Poilievre is emerging as the frontrunner to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister, with strong Polymarket odds and growing support amid Liberal Party instability.
Polymarket Predicts Prime Minister Poilievre
Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party and a vocal supporter of cryptocurrency, has emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next prime minister. According to the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, Poilievre holds an 89% likelihood of winning the upcoming federal election based on user bets totaling $257,000.
The Polymarket prediction, which opened on December 30, 2024, has garnered $412,095 in trading volume as of January 6. The platform specifies that the market will resolve to "Yes" if Poilievre becomes the next prime minister following the election and to "No" otherwise.
Poilievre’s Rise and Pro-Crypto Stance
Poilievre, 45, has a track record as a senior cabinet minister under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has led the Conservative Party since 2022. A staunch advocate for cryptocurrency, Poilievre publicly disclosed his investment in Purpose Bitcoin, a Canada-based cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund. He has also called for Canadians to have greater freedom to invest in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Poilievre’s policies focus on reducing taxes, curbing government spending, and addressing national security and affordability concerns. His campaign emphasizes moving away from the current Liberal-NDP coalition toward Conservative-led governance aimed at “taking back control” of Canada’s financial and policy landscape.
Trudeau’s Resignation Sparks Political Turmoil
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on January 6 that he would step down as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister, citing internal party pressure and declining approval ratings. His decision followed Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s abrupt resignation in December, further destabilizing Liberal leadership. Freeland criticized Trudeau for failing to address trade tensions with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and called for stronger leadership to confront economic challenges.
Trudeau’s tenure as Liberal Party leader since 2013 and prime minister since 2015 has faced increasing scrutiny. The Liberals, governing as a minority party since 2019, have struggled to maintain support amid rising discontent over policies like the carbon tax, increased spending, and housing affordability issues.
Conservatives Hold a Strong Lead
With Trudeau stepping down and the Liberals searching for a new leader ahead of an election that must occur by October 20, 2025, polls suggest the Conservatives are well-positioned to gain power. The party has consistently maintained a double-digit lead over the Liberals, and Poilievre’s platform appears to resonate with voters seeking significant policy changes.
As Canada braces for its next federal election, Polymarket users are placing their bets on Poilievre to lead the nation into a new political era.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.