BTC
The price of BTC surged again last night, reaching around 10,230, and is currently experiencing a pullback. From the K-line perspective, it may test the 100,000 point support again. However, based on the current market performance, I believe it is likely to stabilize above 100,000 points. We need to pay attention to the US meeting minutes on Wednesday and a summary speech about 2024 on Thursday, as these will have a significant impact on both the stock market and the crypto space. Thus, from the market perspective, the main force will also be relatively cautious before these dates, and trading volume still hasn't shown significant growth.
In terms of operations, after suggesting everyone to buy over the weekend last week, our main idea now is to wait and see the situation. If there is a downward trend, specifically if it breaks below 100,000 points, it would be a good opportunity to buy the dip. One can consider laying out spot purchases between 99,500 and 98,500. If it continues to rise rapidly, we can wait and not rush to sell for profit. The recent market trend is generally improving, and the main operational direction is bullish.
ETH
In this weekend's rebound, ETH's movement is relatively weak. From the K-line, it can be seen that the current support is somewhat insufficient. From the news perspective, there are also many negative aspects for ETH. Although during the previous period (before New Year's), there was some buying of ETH by ETFs, it seems that the main force may not have bought enough. Therefore, it is somewhat difficult for it to stabilize above 4000 points in the short term. I tend to believe it may stabilize above 4000 points during Trump's inauguration or the Spring Festival (conservatively estimated).
Ethereum will have an important upgrade in the first quarter, which could be a significant driver for ETH price increases. Therefore, I estimate that it will likely take place after the Spring Festival, in February or March. From a mid-term perspective, it still presents a good layout opportunity. Although there are many negative news items, the inflow of ETF funds can also reflect the actual situation.
In terms of operations, the short-term correction for ETH has already taken place. The next focus is whether it can rise in tomorrow's market. I believe that the probability of this happening is relatively higher compared to BTC, so I choose to increase my position slightly near 3650. Of course, if it falls below 3600, one can temporarily wait and observe, waiting to add positions when the price reaches 3600. However, for medium to long-term perspectives, this price range doesn't need to be overly concerned about. For now, I do not recommend engaging in high-leverage contracts, as we are currently at the middle band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands (just pulled back from the upper band, generally at a critical price point).
Analyzing the crypto market from the perspective of US stocks
Recently, I have noticed that more and more people are paying attention to US stocks through traditional internet media. This may be a key turning point, triggered by some speculators buying into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 ETFs, which has led to some purchase restrictions, especially in funds. Additionally, they have relatively high premiums compared to the index (indicating strong domestic demand for buying into the Nasdaq), which has sparked a wave.
From the K-line perspective of the Nasdaq and S&P, they are currently close to historical highs. With more attention from people here, I estimate that the US stock indices will continue to show an upward trend. Especially since I just watched Nvidia's Huang's press conference today, the new AI hardware and the 50 series graphics cards have astonished everyone. Nvidia still holds a relatively high weight in the US stock market, so this may be an important opportunity for global funds to continue entering the US stock market.
Of course, this will also have a positive impact on the crypto space. Just like the ongoing discussions about AI Agents, as more people invest in US stock indices, some funds will naturally spill over into the crypto space. Additionally, the ongoing purchase of BTC by MicroStrategy has already been included in the Nasdaq index, which is a good thing for MicroStrategy itself, as it can later issue bonds to raise funds to buy more BTC, which is also a clear benefit for BTC.
From a price perspective, BTC and the US stock market have been closely linked this year. Many people have this feeling, for example, when the US stock market rose last night, cryptocurrency prices also rose. In December, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, both the stock market and cryptocurrencies plummeted simultaneously, which indicates that the connection between the US stock market and cryptocurrencies will become tighter in the future. They may become mutually influential, and this relationship is maintained by funds. Particularly, as more and more US-listed companies include BTC in their assets, this will also affect their connection.
Therefore, to a certain extent, the movement of the US stock market may sometimes be a precursor to the movement of BTC. So when analyzing the crypto market, we cannot forget this possible key factor.