Article source: Deep Tide TechFlow
Author: Tomb
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Key points of this post
Reviewing the dynamics of agents (Agents) and AI development over the past few months;
Reviewing some obvious investment opportunities in the market;
Taking a short break during the New Year to observe many things from an observer's perspective and to reflect deeply on past successes and failures;
Next, I will try to share all my thoughts clearly;
Reviewing the dynamics of agents and AI development over the past few months
AI Agents Review
Very satisfied with the performance at the end of last year.
From September to early October, we entered many narratives about AI, agents (Agents), and infrastructure (Infra) very early on.
Analyzing these trends without overcomplicating, but clearly seeing that these are the next stage of the AI supercycle (with more important catalysts to come in the future).
This mature judgment comes from long-term experience in capturing narratives in the market. When you can identify these trends, you can quickly deploy capital without too much hesitation.
Even now, I still see some people arguing about trivial issues such as packaged applications of ChatGPT, specific functionalities of an agent, or a protocol's lack of timely response.
But are these really important? Our purpose here is to make money, not to prove ourselves right.
The key is to be clear about what stage of the market cycle you are in. Each cycle has its unique rules and strategies.
This is also why many people hold on to old projects for too long, missing out on some 'simple models' of trending opportunities. What I mean by 'old' is not old in the literal sense, but relatively 'outdated' compared to the rapid pace of industry development.
Remember, new hotspots emerge every day, and the speed of capital flow will only get faster—if teams cannot clearly convey their ideas or present a clear roadmap, funds will flow to those agreements that can communicate better and quickly implement projects.
When I first encountered Goat, I realized its potential and paid attention to it very early—what surprised me was that others took such a long time to migrate to Base or start exploring agents on Sol.
This phenomenon is largely due to the 'Mid Curve Effect' (which refers to an overcomplicated way of thinking) and market panic. If you realize these issues only now, you need to seriously reflect on the reasons.
I am very grateful for the past few months, as I have not experienced too many serious losses.
I seized the opportunity when ai16z was at a $30 million market cap, and also entered at $30 million for aixbt, in addition to some gaming and dialogue projects when their market cap was below $10 million.
Of course, there are also some missed opportunities, like Zerebro, Fartcoin, Snai, and Swarm Node. But that's okay; it's impossible to seize every opportunity. What’s important is to reflect on why you missed and why they succeeded.
Quality
As always, quality is the key determinant of success:
High-level developers;
Excellent brand building;
Innovative ideas or unique technologies with competitive advantages;
Cohesive high-quality communities;
Clear and valuable information and communication;
These are all core elements that we have been paying attention to. If two or more are missing from the above, there is a risk. Why? Because there will definitely be other teams that can do better.
For instance, in the current environment of Virtuals, as long as a high-quality team launches AI agents or related infrastructure, I will quickly invest early (i.e., 'go all in'). The developer's identity is transparent (doxxed), and they have been deeply involved in this field for over 5 years and participated in multiple protocols—whenever I discover such a team early on, I will decisively enter.
In fact, you don’t even need to invest too much capital to achieve considerable returns. For instance, I discovered the GEKKO project when it first launched, when its market cap was only $4 million. Because it was developed by the Axal team and received investment from a16z—this was enough for me, so I decisively invested. As a result, it grew from $4 million to $40 million, yielding very considerable returns. I believe it will continue to grow further. Turning $4,000 into $40,000 is a year’s salary for some people. Sometimes, you don’t need to invest a huge amount; using $2,000 or $4,000 can bring quite substantial returns. Don’t underestimate the potential of these funds.
Another project I have been positioning is Acolyt, which has a very strong team, with narratives similar to GEKKO. I have previously mentioned that if there are 100 different AI agents providing high-quality market intelligence (alpha), the only things that can differentiate them are identity, user interface (UI), branding, and developer level—this is no different from other areas of life.
This is what I have been looking for: teams that have been focused on building for a long time—those passionate top developers who continuously tweet and keep launching new products. They are the only destination for my funding; I won’t consider other places.
Things to avoid
Avoid solo development teams with undisclosed identities, especially when building speculative agent projects; this carries a high risk.
Another thing to be wary of is agent projects initiated by individual 'internet celebrities'. These projects are often abandoned shortly after being announced, as developers realize the responsibilities exceed expectations.
Struggling Narratives
I have to admit that there are some narratives that I personally hold in high regard, but their development has indeed faced some difficulties. This does not mean that these projects are bad, but their advancement speed is relatively slow.
Putting funds into a seemingly promising project only to find its performance underwhelming, while other surrounding projects achieve 2-3 times growth in a short time, is indeed frustrating.
These projects tend to be 'slow burners', or ultimately become 'experimental products' for other projects.
For example, $GRIFT + $REALIS + $OMEGA. I still hold some of these, but practically, I should have cut my losses earlier and moved funds to stronger AI infrastructure projects such as REI and ARC. The potential of these projects is more apparent, and their performance is more stable.
At that time, I invested about $100,000 to $120,000 in these 'experimental' projects, originally expecting them to capture a larger market share. But in hindsight, projects like Griffain, supported by Solana, are clearly stronger, while projects like Realis need more time to mature, possibly because their ideas are too ahead of their time or because of their smaller team size.
Reflecting on it, when you achieve 20-30 times returns on projects like $GAME, you feel you have enough capital to 'test the waters' or take risks, so you don’t care much about putting funds into a slowly progressing project. But in reality, as a trader or investor, we should not treat our funds this way.
In the coming weeks, I will continue to share observations on agents and market operations, while also focusing on the next possible market rotation opportunity. We all know that no narrative can last forever. This does not necessarily mean that the narrative of agents has ended, but they may be entering a new stage of development.
Please remember that the current market changes very quickly and almost in an all-around acceleration. If you become complacent, you may be eliminated. Pay attention to market dynamics every day, as 'hot potatoes' are getting hotter.
Reviewing some obvious investment opportunities in the market
Some market opportunities are very obvious to some people but not necessarily to others. I won’t list all examples, but I’ll share some major cases and how I grasp these narratives.
VIRTUALS
When I first saw the GOAT project take off, I was deeply attracted. Realizing its potential, I quickly made an investment. But then, I completely missed $ZEREBRO and $BULLY, both of which have had outstanding performances to this day. This has made me even more eager to look for the next possible opportunity.
It was at this moment that I discovered aixbt. When I learned about its functionalities and positioning, I immediately realized this was the next project worth paying attention to, especially after seeing discussions in the community about $GOAT, $ZEREBRO, and $BULLY. I noticed the market is gradually shifting from entertainment-type projects to practical-type projects. This shift is what made me start paying attention to projects like Base, Virtuals, $GAME, and $CONVO.
In fact, it was an article by Jeff about how Virtuals could become a billion-dollar protocol that solidified my determination. The tokenomics, branding, and ecological advantages of the Base chain mentioned in the article further convinced me of the tremendous potential of Virtuals.
By studying $GAME, I finally understood the concept of 'frameworks'. This knowledge allowed me to seize many excellent investment opportunities in the following weeks. Although I am not a tech geek and cannot fully understand all the details, I am very interested in this field and willing to learn as much as possible.
Interestingly, when the market cap of Virtuals reached $5-6 million, I did not invest in it.
I believe that when you confirm the potential of an ecosystem, such as its potential to grow to $5 billion, $10 billion, or even $20 billion, you need to focus on two key points: one is the 'pioneers', and the other is those agents that continuously occupy the mindshare of users.
For example, $LUNA is a typical pioneer, while $VADER is the first DAO/ALPHA project.
In this ecosystem, there are many projects worth noting. For me, the team is the most critical factor, followed by the concept and practicality, and lastly, branding and identity. These three form the 'Holy Trinity'.
Here are some excellent projects worth studying:
>$WAI;
>$ACOLYT;
>$SEKOIA;
>$GEKKO;
These projects are all worth noting, especially those belonging to the Agentstarter ecosystem.
AI16z
It may sound a bit casual, but when I first encountered and promoted daos.fun, I almost directly invested in AI16z just because of the name. After delving into projects like Truth Terminal funded by Marc, I was convinced this was a project worth paying attention to.
When I learned that AI16z DAO was attracting top developers from around the world and was committed to accelerating the construction of its ecosystem and framework, I became even more convinced of its tremendous potential. The activity on GitHub is continuously increasing, and the momentum of the entire project is rapidly accumulating, which cannot be explained by 'mid-curve thinking'.
Despite some FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) during the period, their agent ecosystem's test projects $ELIZA and $DEGENAI hold great potential. For example, Eliza's market cap has reached $160 million, while @degenspartanai has reached $100 million. With the continued expansion of AI16z, it is expected that these two projects will grow further—these are very obvious investment opportunities.
Other ecosystems
In Agentic Outlook One, I analyze each major Launchpad/protocol and its Alpha agents or Beta projects in detail:
Creator.Bid|$BID (potential dark horse)
Algo| Grown from $2-3 million market cap to $25 million (obvious opportunity)
Holoworld AI|$AVA
AVA| Grown from about $25 million to $150 million
vvaifu.fun|$VVAIFU
@dasha| Grown from $15 million to $150 million
The following ecosystems are also worth noting:
$UOS
$AIMONICA
$STOIC
Moemate|$MATES (coming soon)
We have also covered Nebula|$MOE early on, growing from $5 million to $25 million.
Other ecosystems worth paying attention to:
ALCHEMIST AI|$ALCH
FXN|$FXN
arc|$ARC
griffain| $GRIFFAIN
Top Hat ? AI|$HAT
Empyreal|$EMP
Spectral|$SPEC
3σ|$TRISIG
Many of these projects have already achieved several times of growth.
For a complete analysis, you can check here: link
This list can continue, and the potential of these projects will be even higher—they are all very obvious investment opportunities.
However, I still hold some other projects that I think have potential, such as $GRIFT and $REALIS. I believe they just need more time and some adjustments to perform well.
Here are some projects that I haven't had time to analyze in depth, but they are also worth noting:
$REI|REI Network
$SERV|OpenServ
$HEU|Heurist
Among these projects, especially $REI, deserves extra attention.
Outside of the on-chain ecosystem, I am very optimistic about the combination of decentralized finance (DEFI) and agents (Agents):
$MODE|Mode, which I believe is a project with great potential.
Another anticipated development is the further advancement of Uomi.
Stick to choosing projects that have excellent teams, strong infrastructure (Infra), and high attention/heat/mindshare, and you won’t go wrong.
For me, the lifecycle of agents is usually short, as most projects struggle to maintain market attention for long. But in my view, AIXBT and GOAT are exemplary benchmarks for success in the agent field.
Why reflect on these?
Because this can help you discover the next worthy investment opportunity.
Notes
It’s worth noting some early projects like $GNON, $PROJECT89, $AVB, etc.
$OPUS's market cap has declined by 85%, and many early AI projects may have bottomed out.
We need to pay attention to whether these projects are still actively developing, while also remembering that the potential of AI infrastructure (Infra) and agents is enormous.
Every week, new ideas and concepts emerge. These new projects often have stronger teams and better branding, so we need to continuously scan the entire market.
I’m not saying these projects are bad, but I want to emphasize that the speed of market changes is very fast—many traders who have experienced 80-100 times returns will quickly take profits and then turn to the next more attractive opportunity, whether in fields like swarm intelligence, decentralized science (DeSci), or DEFI agents.
Excellent teams always find ways to remain relevant in the market over the long term.
Finally, there are some trends worth paying attention to:
Currently, many hackathons are underway, which are generating some very interesting ideas and projects. Participating in these events can not only help you expand your horizons but also give you a better understanding of future technological trends.
Data sources for AI agents:
Cookie DAO|$COOKIE;
Alphanomics;
Decentralised.Co, in collaboration with Sentient Market;
In the coming days, we can discuss the future direction of the agent field together, so that we can seize the opportunity when the market narrative changes.
