This article will introduce 12 cycle determination tools and exit indicators, most of which are little known. The following is the content details: (The last one is particularly important, be sure to read the comments and save it)

1. PI Cycle

The PI Cycle Top indicator has successfully captured the tops of the previous three cycles. The indicator uses the 111-day moving average (dMA) and 2 times the 350 dMA price. In the past three cycles, when the 111 dMA broke through the 2 times 350 dMA, it marked the top of the BTC/USD cycle. The reason why it is called the PI cycle top is that 350/111 = 3.153, which is not far from 3.142.

Expect this time to be different as the expected crossover is over $400k (hard to achieve), but expect a final phase of excitement after Bitcoin reaches 2x the 350 dMA (currently around $126k).

二、MVRV Z Score

Another on-chain metric that has been highlighted before is the MVRV Z-Score, a tool for assessing periods of extreme bubbles. The MVRV Z-Score can help identify where Bitcoin may be overvalued or undervalued to an extreme degree relative to fair value.

The indicator takes Bitcoin’s market value (price x circulating supply) and real value (average price of each Bitcoin’s last move x circulating supply) and calculates a Z-Score between them, identifying extreme values.

Historically, BTC/USD has formed cycle highs within a few weeks of the peak in this ratio. Expect this cycle to see at least 4; if above this level, you can start looking at other exit indicators.

A more interesting version of this metric that is less well known is the Whale MVRV (holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC), see the chart below:

3. VAPLI and Decay Oscillator
The Volatility Adjusted Power Law Index (VAPLI) indicator is built on the concept of power law and is used to measure the deviation of Bitcoin prices from a fitted power law curve, and is adjusted for volatility to account for changes in market structure over time. Examining the chart below, you can see that the period when the index pushed toward 100 and then turned and began to decline was consistent with the top of the cycle. This number has now broken through 100 again.

Similar to the Volatility Adjusted Power Law, the following Power Law Decaying Channel Oscillator (Decay Oscillator) is modeled by Sminston With.

The peak of this oscillator has almost locked onto the tops of the previous cycles for a few days, but obviously there is no way to really determine in real time where the peak will be reached: but when this indicator reaches above 90%, then looking at other exit signals, there is a 95% chance that it is close to where you want to exit. Currently, the indicator is still below 60%, indicating that this market cycle is still in the up phase:


4. Mayer Multiple

The Mayer Multiple is a multiple of the 200 dMA at the time the price is trading. While the above chart is helpful, it is actually more helpful to normalize it given that volatility has decreased over time. The chart below shows the adjusted Mayer Multiple indicator. It is nowhere near its all-time highs relative to the 200 dMA, and in fact, it is not even back to the March 2024 highs. Looking forward to surpassing the March 2024 highs and moving towards the 0.9 area:

5. NUPL

NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, uses the market value and realized value (as highlighted in the MVRV Z Score section above) and subtracts the realized value from the market value. It is then divided by the market value, using the formula: (Market Value – Realized Market Value) / Market Value.

This chart provides a visual understanding of market sentiment and what stage of the market cycle we may be currently in. Historically, when approaching or exceeding 75%, a cycle top is not far away.

6. Terminal Price

Terminal Price is a tool created by analyst Checkmate. To calculate the metric, the number of days Bitcoin is destroyed is divided by the existing Bitcoin supply and its circulation time. This is considered the "transfer price", which is multiplied by 21.

The way to use it is simply as a reference area where you want to make sure your position is proportionally adjusted - now it is priced at $180,000. This does not mean to wait until $180,000 to exit any long positions, but it is used in conjunction with all other exit indicators. When looking for exit signals, you need to pay more attention to the other on-chain indicators that have been discussed.

7. 4-year MA multiples

The 4-year MA multiple is pretty straightforward: plot the 4-year moving average and calculate how far the price deviates from that multiple. Historically, peaks have been above 4.5 times the 4-year MA, but when that multiple approaches 4, you need to start paying attention to all the other exit indicators:


8. 22-Day RSI

The 22 day RSI indicator is very useful, and of course the 2 week or monthly RSI can also be used, but the 22 day is particularly clear for major swing points. In fact, every time the 22 day RSI peaked above 90, a cycle peak was formed within the next 22 days (excluding the high on November 21st).

You can refer to BTC's 22-day RSI. When the indicator is above 90, you can exit your position within the next 3-6 weeks:

IX. 3-month annualized basis

The 3-month annualized basis is just one quick way to see bubbles in derivatives markets, but it is more useful in highlighting when it is prudent to reduce risk rather than completely exit the spot portfolio when anticipating a cycle peak.

Nonetheless, historically, when the 3-month annualized basis exceeds 30%, things start to get dangerous, as derivatives tend to get more frothy, not less, as they approach cycle peaks (even interim peaks).

10. AHR999 Index

AHR999 Hoarding Coin Indicator

This indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. This indicator implies the rate of return of short-term Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.

When the ahr999 index < 0.45, you can buy at the bottom;

When ahr999 is between 0.45-1.2, it is suitable for fixed investment;

When ahr999 >1.2, the currency price is already relatively high and is not suitable for operation.

In the long run, the price of Bitcoin shows a certain positive correlation with the block height. At the same time, with the advantages of the fixed investment method, users can control the short-term fixed investment costs so that most of them are below the price of Bitcoin.