Last week, the price of BTC rose steadily, closing up for 7 consecutive days, returning to $100,000. Since BTC hit a low of $91,530.45 on December 30, the price rebounded, rising for 7 days. As of January 6, BTC reached a high of $102,724.38, with a maximum weekly increase of 11.35%. Currently, the real-time price of BTC is $101,812.95. The price trend of ETH is roughly the same as BTC, also rising for 7 days, climbing to $3,744.83 on January 6, with a maximum weekly increase of 13%. The current price of ETH is $3,683.14 (the above data is sourced from Binance spot market, January 7, 12:16). This week, selling pressure has diminished, market liquidity has recovered, and the strong rebound of BTC has driven other popular cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL to rise, enhancing bullish sentiment in the market. However, market trader Crypto Scient believes that $100,000 remains a key turning point for BTC. Unless BTC converts $99,000 into a long-term support level, the price may retest the $90,000-88,000 area. As of January 6, 2025, the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies has reached $3.65 trillion, an increase of 6.7% from last week's $3.42 trillion. Among them, the U.S. spot BTC ETF has performed brilliantly, with on-chain total holdings exceeding 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the total BTC supply, valued at approximately $106.8 billion. This week, the net inflow of funds into the U.S. spot BTC ETF reached $240 million, with historical cumulative net inflows having reached $38.9 billion, further solidifying its status as an important entry point for funds in the market. The bullish sentiment in the BTC options market is high, with traders betting on prices breaking $120,000. Data from Deribit on January 6 shows a significant increase in options activity with strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000, reflecting strong expectations from traders for further price increases. Currently, the open contract value of call options with a strike price of $120,000 has reached $1.52 billion, making it the most popular contract type on the Deribit platform. With Trump’s inauguration approaching, the BTC market has shown a new wave of optimism, particularly highlighted by the performance in the options market. Meanwhile, the put/call ratio for all expiration dates has dropped to 0.24. This low ratio indicates that the trading volume of call options far exceeds that of put options, highlighting the market's confidence in the upward price movement of BTC. Additionally, the price pullback at the end of December caused BTC to dip to $91,000, but it has quickly rebounded to $101,000, further consolidating the market's optimistic expectations for an upward trend. As Trump is about to take office, the market remains attentive to potential policy benefits, and the activity level in the BTC options market may become a leading indicator for future price movements. Both miner selling pressure and exchange inflows have decreased, tightening supply to support a bullish outlook for BTC in the medium term. On January 6, Bitfinex reported that the liquidity inventory ratio of BTC has significantly decreased from 41 months in October 2024 to 6.6 months, with continuous outflows from exchanges, while this week, only 200,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, and the profit ratio for short-term holders has dropped to 12%. The increase in stablecoin reserves also indicates that market funds are ample, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. During the same period, both the exchange inflow of BTC and miner outflows have continued to decline, further alleviating market selling pressure and strengthening the medium-term bullish outlook for BTC. At the same time, the outflow of miners to exchanges has also significantly decreased, indicating that miner selling pressure is easing. CryptoQuant data shows that on November 11, 2024, miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, reaching a peak, while by early January 2025, this number had dropped to between 2,000 and 5,000 BTC per day. Changes in miner behavior reflect a tendency to hold positions in response to the dual effects of reduced supply and eased selling pressure, laying a foundation for BTC's medium-term rise. As the market's chip structure stabilizes, BTC's upward trend is expected to continue. Institutions and enterprises are accelerating their accumulation, with BTC expected to break $200,000 by 2025. On December 31, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the price of BTC would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with sustained accumulation by institutions and enterprises being the core driving force. Since the beginning of 2024, institutions have purchased 683,000 BTC through spot BTC ETFs and MicroStrategy. At the enterprise level, the 'BTC accumulation plan' has become a trend. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, 'Since last Monday, 11 publicly traded companies have purchased more BTC. 2025 may be an important milestone for more companies to join the BTC standard.' The Japanese listed company Metaplanet plans to raise its BTC holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025 to promote global adoption. The dual effects of accelerated institutional buying and eased supply lay a solid foundation for BTC's mid- to long-term rise in 2025. The Trump concept Memecoin leads the way, with altcoin sentiment warming. On January 7, the U.S. Congress officially confirmed Trump as the elected president, and his crypto-friendly policy expectations have driven related tokens to rise. The Trump concept Memecoin, TRUMP, has risen for 3 consecutive days since January 4, with a cumulative increase of over 80%; MAGA, TRUMPCOIN, and others have seen increases close to 100%, but have subsequently pulled back. However, the family project World Liberty Financial's holdings of LINK, AAVE, and other tokens have not shown significant upward momentum. Market sentiment has turned optimistic, with the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rising to 78, entering the 'extreme greed' range. BTC has returned above $100,000, driving a bullish sentiment across the market, but altcoin performance has been mixed. SOL has once again broken through 220 USDT, AVAX has risen by 6%, while SUI fell back to 5 USDT after hitting a new high. The ETH ecosystem has seen a brief pullback, with LDO down about 3% and ENA down nearly 10%. Despite positive market expectations, volatility remains a core concern recently, and investors should be wary of short-term pullback risks. Market highlights: Federal Reserve reserves fall below $3 trillion, the lowest since 2020. On January 3, according to Federal Reserve data, U.S. banking system reserves fell to about $2.89 trillion as of the week ending January 1, dipping below the $3 trillion mark, marking the lowest level since October 2020, and recording the largest single-week decline in two and a half years, decreasing by about $326 billion. Year-end regulatory requirements prompted banks to reduce balance sheet activities, with funds flowing from banks to the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) tool. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to remove excess cash from the financial system through its quantitative tightening (QT) plan, further tightening liquidity. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy and their potential impact on the banking system. BTC mining difficulty reaches a new high, with miner income at $1.44 billion. The mining difficulty and hash rate of the BTC network continue to rise. On December 30, 2024, BTC mining difficulty was adjusted upward by 1.16% to 109.78 T, reaching a new historical high, with the average network hash rate reaching 804.04 EH/s, and the next difficulty adjustment is expected to increase to 111.20 T. Despite improvements in mining machine efficiency, rapid global hash rate growth and rising energy costs put pressure on mining profitability. In this high-difficulty environment, miner income remains strong, with cumulative income in 2024 reaching $1.44 billion. Large mining company MARA reported that it generated $8.7 million in interest income through optimized resource utilization and lending strategies in the first three quarters, while its powered hash rate reached 53 EH/s. As competition intensifies, miners need to continuously optimize strategies to maintain profitability in this competitive market. Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.

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