Bitcoin surged upwards last night, reaching a high of $102,724, returning to above $100,000 for the first time since December 19, 2024, successfully continuing the rebound trend at the beginning of the new year, and everyone's confidence has slowly recovered. Both mainstream and altcoins are quietly rising. Did you seize the opportunity? Can you still catch up now?
BTC is more likely to maintain a high-level consolidation state in the range of 98,000-104,000. This period is the stage for it to consolidate its foundation. If you don’t have a position now, don’t rush to chase highs, hold steady, and wait for a low point before buying.
Remember that there is no need to regret missing some bargain hunting opportunities in a bull market. The crypto market is characterized by its volatile nature, and new opportunities are always emerging.
The upward signal appears, what factors are pulling up the market?
1. Market sentiment has warmed, and activity in futures and options has increased significantly.
The weighted funding rate of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures on major exchanges such as BTC and OKEx has recently risen to 0.0113%, indicating that market sentiment is turning optimistic. The current funding level is still in a healthy range. Although a large-scale short squeeze cannot be expected, the possibility of a short-term market pullback is not high.
The Bitcoin options market was active again in early January, with more than 1,000 calls with a strike price of $103,000 expiring on January 7. The demand for calls with a strike price of $120,000 was also high, and it has become the most popular option on the Deribit platform, with an open interest of $1.52 billion, which shows the market's expectations for the future of Bitcoin. Active trading in such short-term call options often indicates upward price potential.
2. Coinbase premium returns, institutional and retail sentiment warms up
After the sharp sell-off in December, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium returned to a neutral level on January 4. This shows that retail sentiment in the US market has gradually warmed up. However, on-chain data analysis shows that small retail trading volumes below $10,000 continue to decline, and the main driving force of the market is still from institutional investors and medium and large traders.
3. Institutional holdings are accelerating, and Bitcoin supply and demand continue to tighten
Since January, Bitcoin ETF spot has once again achieved net inflows, and its total net asset value has reached 111.46 billion US dollars, the ETF net asset ratio (market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) has reached 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached 35.91 billion US dollars. The strong entry of institutional funds is an important driving force for the recent rebound in Bitcoin prices.
In short, the current market sentiment has turned optimistic. If the bitcoin price successfully stabilizes at 100,000 in the future, a new round of rising market will begin. Trump will take office in half a month, and the Trump sector should have a wave of outbreaks. In addition, after Trump takes office, whether he will attend to some favorable policies will also play a big role in promoting the market.
Trump is about to take office. How can we seize the beneficial effects of this opportunity?
Whether the altcoin can reach a new high, insufficient liquidity is an excuse to explain the decline, but it is not the real reason for the decline. The real reason for the decline is "expected to fall", and the reason for the rise is also "expected to rise". The market value of USDT in 2021 is only half of the current one, but it can still support the altcoin bull market. The current round is not surprising. As long as there is "expectation", although the altcoin cannot rise 100 times, it is no problem to exceed the 2021 high by 50%-100%.
There is also the Trump market factor. The Trump factor is the main reason for the crazy rise of BTC since November. Therefore, the topic of Trump is a very grand topic, and it is difficult to explain the pros and cons in a few words.
In addition to focusing on mainstream currencies such as ETH, BTC, and SOL, you can also focus on Trump-related currencies and Trump's holdings.
Trump officially took office on January 20, and the popularity of related concept coins continued to soar, which should be hyped. You can pay attention to the related ones: ETH, AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc. Among them, ETH is the largest holding of Trump's new project WLFI. It is expected that Ethereum will lead the rising market in a certain period of time. Due to the market value, the increase of the following four projects will be significantly higher than that of Ethereum.
In addition, the Ethereum ecosystem and AI sector's symbols: ena, ens, op, fet, render and the Trump team-related RSR, DOGE, etc. may also be linked and can be selected.
