The reason why I think the bull market is more likely to end in March is because:
1. The timing of the yen rate hike. Market liquidity is a key factor in determining the bull-bear transition, and the yen rate hike has a great impact on the US stock market and the crypto market, which can be seen from the impact of the yen rate hike in early August. At present, the market expects that the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise interest rates in March. Once the yen rate hike occurs, it is likely to mean the end of the crypto bull market;
2. Wave cycle. The first wave of this round of Bitcoin bull market lasted for nearly 5 months (2022.11.21-2023.4.14), with a 1-fold increase; the third wave lasted for 6 months (2023.9.12-2024.3.13), with a 1.96-fold increase; the fifth wave started on 2024.9.6 and is still in progress. The current maximum increase is 1.06, and the expected increase is more than 1.8 times. In terms of increase and duration, the fifth wave and the third wave will be closer, so the fifth wave is more likely to end in March.
When analyzing the market, we should consider the market's own rules and the changes in the main factors affecting the market. It is a taboo to rely on imagination to write scripts.