Today, on the Laba Festival, I wish my friends a happy Laba Festival!
First, let's take a look at Bitcoin: BTC has been continuously rising slightly for nearly a week, boosting everyone's confidence. Both mainstream and altcoins are quietly rising. Have you seized the opportunity? Many friends have been observing and missed the good opportunity. Some friends are asking me whether to chase in now.
Here’s my suggestion: Don’t be fooled by Bitcoin returning to over $100,000; the market's funds haven't increased. This is mainly reflected in the slowdown in demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy’s CEO. Without significant buying pressure, Bitcoin may undergo a correction, which will also drag down altcoins. Thus, now is not a very good time to enter; moreover, with Trump taking office on January 20th, if there’s a sudden drop before he takes office, you might get stuck, which would be a loss.
I personally predict that BTC will fluctuate between $99,000 and $103,000. This stage is about solidifying the foundation. If you don't have a position now, don't impulsively chase the high; stay steady and accumulate at lower levels.
Now, let’s talk about ETH, which is expected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,800, showing a very strong trend. Additionally, institutional holdings are continuously increasing, which indicates what? If you hold ETH, just keep holding.
Views on the future of AI
Although we’ve said that AI is the future, today AI and Chain Oil Sand have collectively corrected, but the overall trend is still good, and the Meme sector is steadily consolidating while waiting for a rise. Strong coins include BOME, HMSTR, AI, IO, etc. There are 14 days until Trump takes office and 22 days until the New Year, so market fluctuations will be large. Switching positions and targeting potential coins should begin once the market stabilizes.
It is uncertain whether coins with good trends will correct, but there are indeed many opportunities. I have already identified a few targets and am waiting to get in. Although the secondary market has seen some correction, the primary market is still hitting new highs. AI16Z is approaching the previous high of 2.36, and Swarms is consolidating around 0.5, waiting to push higher.
The explosive popularity of AI Agents poses a challenge to major exchanges, as traffic and funds will flow from the secondary market to the primary market. Unless the secondary market starts to rally, this trend will continue. However, regardless, holding leading spot assets can maintain an undefeated position.
Do data impacts influence whether altcoin cycles can break new highs?
Can altcoins innovate new highs? Insufficient liquidity is just an excuse; the real reason for the decline is the expectation of a drop, while the reason for the rise is the expectation of an increase. In 2021, the market value of USDT was only half of what it is now, yet it still supported the altcoin bull market. The current round is the same; as long as there is an expectation, altcoins may not necessarily rise 100 times, but exceeding 50%-100% of the 2021 high is definitely possible.
Regarding the Trump market factor, the crazy rise of BTC starting in November is mainly due to Trump. Therefore, the topic of Trump is a very broad one, and it's hard to explain its pros and cons in just a few words. After confirming the general direction, when selecting coins, focus on those related to Trump and the altcoins in which Trump is invested.
We are experiencing our first rebound after about two weeks of consolidation. Some see this as an opportunity to escape, while others see it as the start of altcoin season. Apart from market data, this will largely depend on the FOMC meeting on January 28-29, as well as various macro data released for the rest of January.
These data will influence the market's expectations for the first rate cuts in January/March/May. If the data is better (where 'better' refers to favorable conditions for us), then the probability of a rate cut in March will increase, and the expected number of rate cuts for the whole year will also rise. (Currently, a rate cut in January seems unlikely, hence the main bets are on March vs. May.)
At the same time, there is a dot plot in March, which implies that March will provide the expected number of rate cuts for the whole year. If January's data is favorable and the statements in January are very dovish, then the expectation for rate cuts in March will increase, making it very likely that the bull market will continue.