#比特币走势观察 $BTC 【Regarding Bitcoin's trend, there is indeed a possibility of a deep pullback in the short term, but whether there will be new highs remains uncertain】

From historical data, Bitcoin's price has consistently exhibited high volatility. For example, on March 5, 2024, Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $69,000, a historic high, but then quickly fell back, dropping more than 8%. Such drastic price fluctuations are relatively common in the Bitcoin market.

For the potential deep pullback in the short term, some on-chain indicators and technical analysis tools have provided sell signals. For instance, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 may indicate that the asset is overbought and heading towards a correction. In November 2024, the RSI hovered around 77, which was interpreted as a flashing sell signal. Additionally, indicators such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT), and investors' profitability also provided bearish clues.

However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether Bitcoin will create new highs in the future. On one hand, favorable factors such as the Bitcoin halving event may provide upward momentum. On the other hand, various factors such as the macroeconomic environment, global political events, market sentiment, and regulatory policies may all influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Therefore, for investors, it is essential to remain rational and objective at all times, thoroughly assess the market environment, investment preferences, and risk controls. Do not blindly follow trends, but base decisions on one's own risk tolerance and investment.