The next two weeks are crucial for Bitcoin's trend!
Two possible scenarios
1. Before January 21, Bitcoin will consolidate horizontally and surge after Trump takes office;
2. Or we might see a big market surge before January 21, directly hitting $120,000.
Key point: If today's daily closing price can stabilize above $104,000, we may welcome a straight surge.
Historical data reference: In the first quarter after Bitcoin halved in 2021, the increase exceeded 100%. If we follow the diminishing return pattern, assuming a 50% increase in the first quarter, BTC will reach $150,000.
As for Ethereum, if it can break through $4,000, it may even challenge the historical high of $4,900. ETH's valuation against BTC is also rising healthily, and the future trend is worth looking forward to!
Stay calm during the hot market and don’t be swayed by overly optimistic emotions!
Actually, if we look at the bull and bear phases, we are now in the later stage of the fourth cryptocurrency bull market.
A 4-year cycle, 3 years bear market, 1 year bull market. In the bull market, the first 8 months are basically slow washout declines.
The next two months will be a strong surge, and the last two months will be about building a peak.
Strictly speaking, the bull market started in October 2023. So now is the mid-stage of the bull market.
There are about 5 months left in the bull market. The real explosive period hasn't arrived yet.
The explosive period should be around February to May. It will end around July 2025.
Of course, this is not a fact, it is just my opinion based on historical data. It cannot be quantified.
I don't know if it's right or wrong. But this is how the patterns of past cycles have been.
The cryptocurrency market will not always rise, nor will it always fall; this market develops very quickly.
It must rise rapidly to ultimately chase the market cap of gold. So it operates on a 4-year cycle, and the real explosion happens within 3-4 months; this means you wait 4 years just to wait for those 3-4 months. If you miss those 3-4 months, your profits will vanish, and you may even incur losses.
The cryptocurrency market must have a rapid decline to eliminate scams, junk projects, and speculators. The most important thing in the cryptocurrency market is efficiency, which was born to change financial efficiency, so it must eliminate junk projects. When the bear market starts, besides BTC and ETH, you can hold them without moving; you shouldn't keep anything else. The only two assets that might cross the cycle are BTC and ETH. Everything else may just be a runner-up.
Be patient and wait for the arrival of a crazy bull market. Doing nothing right now is the best.
If you have already configured before, you need to have confidence in your position, minor adjustments are fine, but try not to change the large position.