Daily Market Report (January 7, 2025, 09:00 AM)

ChainDD's January 7 market shows that the comprehensive index is quoted with CoinMarketCap:

BTC is priced at $102,217.48, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 4.01%;

ETH is priced at $3,683.13, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 7.66%;

BNB is priced at $728.13, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 2.78%;

DOT is priced at $7.75, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 2.15%;

DOGE is priced at $0.3898, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 2.74%.

Chain Circle Dynamics

Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may reach a local peak in mid to late March; Maelstrom has entered the DeSci field.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that he believes the crypto market will peak in mid to late March.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion and additionally inject $237 billion in liquidity due to adjustments in reward rates, totaling a net injection of $57 billion in liquidity.

The Treasury may pay government expenses through the TGA until May to June, after which the debt ceiling needs to be raised, which will negatively impact liquidity. Additionally, peak tax periods (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity.

If the factors affecting the TGA balance are the only determinants of cryptocurrency prices, a local market peak is expected by the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin reached a local high of about $73,000 in mid-March, then consolidated, and began a months-long decline on April 11 (just before the 15th tax deadline).

It added that the Trump team's disappointment with its proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation could be compensated for by the extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, with an increase of up to $612 billion in dollar liquidity in the first quarter.

He also stated: 'As the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, I will encourage adventurers in the fund to shift risks towards DEGEN. The first step in this direction is our decision to enter the thriving decentralized science (DeSci) junk coin field. We love undervalued junk coins and have purchased BIO; VITA; ATH; GROW; PSY; CRYO; NEURON.'

Head of Base protocol: Base is not in a zero-sum competition with Ethereum, as L2 is executing the Ethereum roadmap to achieve a win-win.

Jesse Pollak, head of the Base protocol, responded to Solana co-founder toly on X, stating: "I don't think the relationship between Base and Ethereum is a zero-sum competition. Base and other L2s are actually executing the Ethereum roadmap, and many of us have been working together on this for over 5 years. If Base grows, Ethereum will also grow.

Will Ethereum's transaction acceptance rate on L2 be lower than on L1? Yes, absolutely. When we are in possibly the greatest growth opportunity in human history, will this acceptance rate be the same as it is today? I doubt it—I expect it to be higher, but it will still be below 100%. Should L1 also increase capacity? Yes, that would be great too!

We can achieve a win-win situation. Building together is 100 times more interesting than tearing each other down and competing in a zero-sum way, and the chances of success are 100 times higher.

That said, I do understand how useful it is for you to drive us to compete with each other. The more intensely we compete, the less we can focus on working together across multiple layers to create the best possible version of Ethereum. My goal is to ensure that this does not happen. Achieving mutual success, sticking to the basics, and continuing to build.

CryptoQuant analyst: This bull market is likely to reach a cyclical peak in Q1 2025 or at the latest in Q2.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated in an article on January 6 that the bull market beginning in January 2023 is likely to reach a cyclical peak in the first quarter of 2025 or at the latest in the second quarter.

The article states: "With a large influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, we can reasonably expect that the market is currently in the later stages of this cycle." The post states: "Therefore, significant expectations for the rise of Bitcoin and altcoins are still worth looking forward to. Nevertheless, from a conservative perspective and considering risk management, it is advisable to proceed with caution."

Gemini Trust agrees to pay $5 million to settle CFTC charges.

Gemini Trust, led by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, agreed to pay $5 million to settle a lawsuit brought by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to misleading statements made to regulators. In a proposed consent order signed by both parties on Monday, the company agreed to settle but neither admitted nor denied the allegations in the agency's complaint.

The CFTC sued Gemini in June 2022 for making 'false or misleading statements of material fact.' The agency stated that Gemini made these statements to the CFTC between July 2017 and December 2017, when the company was undergoing an assessment of Bitcoin futures contracts. The agency indicated in 2022 that Gemini allegedly made these statements regarding whether the company's proposed Bitcoin futures contracts were 'susceptible to manipulation.'

Nasdaq applies to increase the position limit for BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF from 25,000 to 250,000 shares.

According to a public regulatory document, Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to increase the position limit for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) from 25,000 to 250,000 shares. It is worth noting that this application also needs SEC approval to take effect. The position limit refers to the maximum number of shares that a single investor or institution can hold in the ETF.

The head of Bitwise Alpha Strategies expressed: 'Considering the ETF's increasing trading volume, it would be reasonable to raise the position limit to at least 400,000 shares. Nasdaq and BlackRock's request is reasonable and supported by facts.'

Animoca Brands co-founder: Memecoins are expected to launch their own L1 or L2.

Animoca Brands co-founder Yat Siu stated in an interview that the crypto industry is at a turning point, similar to what he observed when the internet first changed business in the 1990s. The first part of the large-scale adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2025 is stablecoin adoption, followed by a broader expansion of memecoins throughout the blockchain ecosystem.

Yat Siu stated: 'I expect memecoins to launch their own L1 or L2. They are no longer just tokens; they are building communities and ecosystems. Memecoins are essentially cultural symbols. They are attracting people's attention and building narratives that resonate with people beyond financial speculation.'

JPMorgan: Inflation and geopolitical risks may sustain demand for gold and Bitcoin in the long term.

JPMorgan noted in a research report that the so-called 'devaluation trades' flowing into gold and Bitcoin will 'persist' as investors prepare for ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The bank stated that as investors increasingly seek tools to hedge geopolitical risks and inflation, gold and Bitcoin 'appear to have structurally become more important components of investor portfolios', citing 'record capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market in 2024.'

JPMorgan stated that 'devaluation trades' refer to the growing demand for gold and Bitcoin due to multiple factors, including 'structurally higher geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, persistent high uncertainty regarding long-term inflation prospects, and concerns about 'debt devaluation' due to sustained high government deficits in major economies.'