BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that he believes the cryptocurrency market will peak in mid to late March.
The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion and will inject an additional $237 billion of liquidity due to reduced RRP balances from rate adjustments. This results in a total net injection of $57 billion in liquidity.
The Treasury may pay government expenses through TGA until May to June, after which it will need to raise the debt ceiling, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. Furthermore, the peak tax period (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity.
If the factors affecting the TGA balance are the only determinants of cryptocurrency prices, a local market peak is expected at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin reached a local high of about $73,000 in mid-March, then consolidated, and began a months-long decline on April 11 (just before the 15th tax deadline).
He added that the disappointment of Trump's team with his proposed pro-cryptocurrency and pro-business legislation could be offset by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, with dollar liquidity increasing by up to $612 billion in the first quarter.
He also stated, 'As the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, I will encourage the adventurers in the fund to shift risks towards DEGEN. The first step in this direction is our decision to enter the booming decentralized science (DeSci) meme coin space. We like undervalued meme coins and have bought BIO; VITA; ATH; GROW; PSY; CRYO; NEURON.'