Wu said that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in a recent long article why he believes the cryptocurrency market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant correction by analyzing the liquidity environment of the US dollar in the first quarter of 2025 and its impact on the crypto market. With the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase program (RRP) balance decreasing and the release of funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA), approximately $61.2 billion in liquidity is expected to be injected in the first quarter, providing support for Bitcoin and other assets. However, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion, and the debt ceiling issue could trigger a liquidity shift in the second quarter. The Treasury may fund government spending through the TGA until May or June, after which it will need to raise the debt ceiling, which will negatively impact liquidity. Additionally, the tax peak period (around mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite numerous macroeconomic variables, the flow of funds from RRP and TGA has a relatively clear impact on the market. In summary, the market is expected to experience a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, followed by a potential adjustment period.