I asked ChatGPT if the dollar will continue to rise and along with it the price of stablecoins backed by it and this was their response:
Answer 2
Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2025 indicate that the currency should remain at high levels in relation to the real.
Projections from financial institutions:
Itaú Unibanco revised its estimate, predicting that the dollar will close 2025 at R$5.70, compared to a previous projection of R$5.20.
Santander projects the dollar to be quoted at R$5.80 by the end of 2025.
BTG Pactual estimates that the American currency could reach R$6.25 in 2025.
Banco BV predicts that the dollar could reach R$6.50 by the end of 2025, influenced by factors such as risk aversion in the global market and US economic policies.
Factors influencing these projections:
Brazilian fiscal scenario: Uncertainties about fiscal policy and the trajectory of public debt increase the perception of risk, putting upward pressure on the dollar exchange rate.
US economic policies: The possible adoption of protectionist measures and fiscal stimulus in the United States could strengthen the dollar globally, impacting its exchange rate against the real.
Global economic conditions: Risk aversion and economic slowdown in key markets could reduce appetite for investments in emerging markets, negatively impacting the real.
It is important to note that, although the dollar closed 2024 above R$6, projections for 2025 vary between R$5.70 and R$6.50, indicating a possible stabilization around these values.
Recommendations:
Given this scenario, it is advisable to:
Regularly monitor economic updates: Projections may change as new economic data and policy decisions are released.
Consider currency hedging strategies: For companies and investors exposed to the dollar, hedging measures can mitigate risks associated with currency volatility.
Consult financial experts: For investment decisions or financial planning, it is prudent to seek professional guidance adapted to your profile and objectives.
Remember that the forex market is influenced by a multitude of factors, and forecasts are subject to change. Staying informed and acting cautiously is essential.
For a more detailed analysis of the dollar's history in 2024 and the outlook for 2025, you can watch the following video: