Today is Monday, which is also the time for Bitcoin to close its weekly line. The weekly line is very important for our judgment of market trends. As per convention, we will analyze Bitcoin from three dimensions: **fundamentals, data, and technical aspects**, while also paying attention to Ethereum's latest performance.
### Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Market Rebound Signals Emerge
Let's first take a look at Bitcoin's weekly performance. The weekly close this morning is very critical; we can see that this weekly candle has formed an **engulfing pattern**, wrapping around last week's candlestick. This pattern is often viewed as a signal of market rebounding, indicating that Bitcoin may have emerged from the bottom. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin still faces significant pressure in the **100,000 to 103,000 range**. Technically, the market has not fully entered an optimistic state, and fluctuations may likely occur in the high-level range in the future.
Additionally, my own summarized **Bitcoin Peak Escape Indicator** also shows that the current indicators are healthy, with no signs of a peak temporarily, which is worth noting.
From the perspective of **capital**, the situation also confirms the characteristics of consolidation. The capital flow data of Bitcoin spot ETFs shows a net inflow for three days last week and a net outflow for three days, which is significantly different from the majority of net inflows from October to December, reflecting that market capital is also in a wait-and-see state at current levels.
### Ethereum's outlook is more optimistic
In comparison, Ethereum's performance is slightly better. Firstly, by the close this morning, Ethereum had recorded two consecutive weekly bullish candles, while Bitcoin only had one. This aligns with my view in the **December 29 video regarding the gradual recovery of Ethereum's fundamentals**.
### Three Major Reasons for Ethereum's Bullish Outlook:
1. Stronger capital flow
From the perspective of ETF capital flow, Ethereum's performance is better than Bitcoin's. Last week, Ethereum ETF saw **four inflows and two outflows**, while Bitcoin had **three inflows and three outflows**. Although there wasn't a clear breakthrough, it indicates that Ethereum's capital flow is relatively stronger.
2. Five major upgrade proposals are coming in 2025
The five upgrade proposals for Ethereum will bring comprehensive improvements to network performance, user experience, and decentralization. This lays a good foundation for Ethereum's narrative in the upcoming bull market.
3. Long-term holders continue to increase their positions
Data shows that after Bitcoin broke 100,000, long-term holders began to reduce their positions, but data regarding Ethereum shows that long-term holders have been increasing continuously after Bitcoin surpassed 100,000. This indicates that long-term investors in the market hold an optimistic attitude towards Ethereum, believing it has great potential in the future bull market.
Overall, **Ethereum's fundamentals have significantly improved compared to last year**, but whether it can continue to break through and usher in a rise still depends on changes in market sentiment and its own narrative and positioning in the market. Just like Solana and Sui, in this round of the bull market, those who can find a clear positioning and gain market recognition will stand out.
### Summary
This week's weekly review summary: **Bitcoin** is currently in a consolidation phase. Although there have been some rebound signals, it still faces significant technical pressure. The entanglement and uncertainty of capital may lead to high-level fluctuations for a while. **Ethereum** has shown relatively strong performance, with fundamentals gradually recovering and long-term holders continuously increasing their positions, laying the foundation for future rises. However, attention should also be paid to how it finds its positioning and narrative to attract more capital.
